US Presidential Election
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BainbridgeShred
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I thought overall it was a brilliant RNC. Much better than the DNC. Although I feel Future President McCain may not be the best speech giver, he gets the job done well enough.
Palin clearly hit the ball out of the park with her speech and every Hillary supporter and hockey mom in the nation will get her vote as a matter of fact they must give her her vote.
Hussein Obama had his chance to pick Hillary but he chose a liberal blowhard instead.
Palin clearly hit the ball out of the park with her speech and every Hillary supporter and hockey mom in the nation will get her vote as a matter of fact they must give her her vote.
Hussein Obama had his chance to pick Hillary but he chose a liberal blowhard instead.
Donald Cliff
What's the difference between a hockey mom and a pitbull ?
The lipstick. *ha ha ha*
I love pitbulls they are loyal and serve their owners, um, just like Palin.
It is insulting and sexist to assume that women don't know the difference between a strong woman that ran an effective campaign to be President of the United States, and a woman chosen by the white men of the GOP to be an assistant to the good old boys club.
Palin is not about hillary voters at all. She is there to feed red meat to the base. [/img]
The lipstick. *ha ha ha*
I love pitbulls they are loyal and serve their owners, um, just like Palin.
It is insulting and sexist to assume that women don't know the difference between a strong woman that ran an effective campaign to be President of the United States, and a woman chosen by the white men of the GOP to be an assistant to the good old boys club.
Palin is not about hillary voters at all. She is there to feed red meat to the base. [/img]
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Frank_Sinatra
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Thanks Dan.
Here's a good article on voter's reaction to Palin: http://www.pollster.com/blogs/omero_the ... ore_ba.php
Somewhat luckily for McCain, a lot of negative stuff came out about her on day one, rather than one bad story every day or two. And now it looks like Alaska republicans are shifting towards not subpoena-ing her in the Trooper firing scandal, which is not much of a surprise really.
Palin definitely energized the base, but she's currently a non-factor to independents, moderates, and dems, with the potential to become a major liability if the press starts pulling on any of a number of threads.
And a new thread could very easily emerge if the dems are smart, tying her style of politics directly to the never-more-toxic GW Bush. Obama is indicating he's going to stay focused on McCain but that doesn't mean other dems can't (or shouldn't) make her into the new Dan Quayle.
McCain can't win without the base, but he also can't win the undecideds if they perceive him as yet another puppet of the base. Even if he walks that tight rope effectively, the current polling is looking tough for him.
He's got to hold all of the state's he's currently ahead in. He has to win all of the following close states - Ohio, Florida, Virginia, Nevada & Colorado - plus one of the following - New Hampshire, Montana, or North Dakota.
Its possible, but a lot tougher than Obama's path to victory. Obama needs to hold all of the state's he's currently leading in, plus any of the following: Ohio, Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, Indiana. Or if he wins Colorado plus Nevada, Montana, North Dakota, or New Hampshire, or any three of the last four states, he wins.
Strategically, Obama's got way more options, a lot more money, and can force McCain to use up limited resources in states that usually aren't in play. Remember, McCain has to win nearly every big state that's currently close, plus most of the smaller states, while Obama only needs one big state or two or three smaller ones. So McCain's got to be almost perfect while Obama can pursue any of a half dozen strategies simultaneously and if even one of them works - he's the next president.
On the national numbers, its a similar story. In a lot of polls roughly 10% of respondents are reporting as undecided, and Obama currently up by between 5 and 8 points. So if the election were held today, McCain would need to scoop up at least 80% of the undecides - which is going to be very difficult.
All that being said, the polls are going to adjust a little in McCain's direction in the next couple days, so these numbers will need to be re-evaluated. I don't personally expect a huge McCain bounce but its possible that the more casual voters who tuned in last night actually believe the things that he says.
So for McCain to guarantee the numbers turn in his favor, he has no choice but to get very, very nasty in the next couple months. And naturally he'll pretend he's not being nasty. I think Obama will probably react better than Kerry, Gore, and Dukakis. And another wildcard - this year I don't think the American public is primed to swallow the "if you elect a democrat you'll be gang-raped by gay black muslim flag burning atheists 9/11 9/11 9/11 9/11 9/11" tactic.
Here's a good article on voter's reaction to Palin: http://www.pollster.com/blogs/omero_the ... ore_ba.php
Somewhat luckily for McCain, a lot of negative stuff came out about her on day one, rather than one bad story every day or two. And now it looks like Alaska republicans are shifting towards not subpoena-ing her in the Trooper firing scandal, which is not much of a surprise really.
Palin definitely energized the base, but she's currently a non-factor to independents, moderates, and dems, with the potential to become a major liability if the press starts pulling on any of a number of threads.
And a new thread could very easily emerge if the dems are smart, tying her style of politics directly to the never-more-toxic GW Bush. Obama is indicating he's going to stay focused on McCain but that doesn't mean other dems can't (or shouldn't) make her into the new Dan Quayle.
McCain can't win without the base, but he also can't win the undecideds if they perceive him as yet another puppet of the base. Even if he walks that tight rope effectively, the current polling is looking tough for him.
He's got to hold all of the state's he's currently ahead in. He has to win all of the following close states - Ohio, Florida, Virginia, Nevada & Colorado - plus one of the following - New Hampshire, Montana, or North Dakota.
Its possible, but a lot tougher than Obama's path to victory. Obama needs to hold all of the state's he's currently leading in, plus any of the following: Ohio, Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, Indiana. Or if he wins Colorado plus Nevada, Montana, North Dakota, or New Hampshire, or any three of the last four states, he wins.
Strategically, Obama's got way more options, a lot more money, and can force McCain to use up limited resources in states that usually aren't in play. Remember, McCain has to win nearly every big state that's currently close, plus most of the smaller states, while Obama only needs one big state or two or three smaller ones. So McCain's got to be almost perfect while Obama can pursue any of a half dozen strategies simultaneously and if even one of them works - he's the next president.
On the national numbers, its a similar story. In a lot of polls roughly 10% of respondents are reporting as undecided, and Obama currently up by between 5 and 8 points. So if the election were held today, McCain would need to scoop up at least 80% of the undecides - which is going to be very difficult.
All that being said, the polls are going to adjust a little in McCain's direction in the next couple days, so these numbers will need to be re-evaluated. I don't personally expect a huge McCain bounce but its possible that the more casual voters who tuned in last night actually believe the things that he says.
So for McCain to guarantee the numbers turn in his favor, he has no choice but to get very, very nasty in the next couple months. And naturally he'll pretend he's not being nasty. I think Obama will probably react better than Kerry, Gore, and Dukakis. And another wildcard - this year I don't think the American public is primed to swallow the "if you elect a democrat you'll be gang-raped by gay black muslim flag burning atheists 9/11 9/11 9/11 9/11 9/11" tactic.
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Frank_Sinatra
- Avenging Disco Godfather
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We are heading into day eleven, Sarah Palin has yet to speak an unscripted word.
An interview is schedule for late in the week with Charlie Gibson. The topics ,and questions, are rumored to have been agreed to in advance. ABC and McCain*Palin claim nothing is off the table . . . a nod to the news man they picked.
In my other blog I covered what is going on with her dodging the press. For the record, I agree with Rick Davis. She is not scared to answer questions. I think she is over anxious, and woefully unqualified Here is how the campaign put it ... emphasis is mine.
on day 9 :
Republican campaign manager Rick Davis sums it up as "This election is not about issues. This election is about a composite view of what people take away from these candidates."
on day 10 :
Here is a short transcript on the lack of interviews . . . FoxNews' Wallace vs Rick Davis, McCain Campaign manager
WALLACE: Why is she scared to answer...
DAVIS: I don't think our campaign...
WALLACE: Why is she scared to answer questions?
DAVIS: I don't think our campaign is the campaign that has not given immense amount of access to the press. That's the Obama campaign.
WALLACE: Why is she scared to answer questions?
DAVIS: She's not scared to answer questions. But you know what? We run our campaign, not the news media. And we'll do things on our timetable. And honestly, this last week was not an exemplary moment for the news media.
WALLACE: I understand that.
DAVIS: And so why would we want to throw Sarah Palin into a cycle of piranhas called the news media that have nothing better to ask questions about than her personal life and her children?
And I think our attitude would be why don't we let that pass until we expose her to...
WALLACE: I think there are legitimate questions that — and it doesn't have to be a huge news conference. I'm not telling you how to run your campaign.
DAVIS: Sure.
WALLACE: There are legitimate questions about is she or is she not ready to be commander in chief. If last week didn't work, why not this week?
DAVIS: Sarah Palin will have the opportunity to speak to the American people. She just gave a speech to 40 million Americans in her convention.
WALLACE: But that was reading a script. She's not answering questions.
DAVIS: She's in the process of, you know, getting to know people out on the campaign trail, and she will do interviews, but she'll do them on the terms and conditions of which the campaign decides that it's ready to do it.
An interview is schedule for late in the week with Charlie Gibson. The topics ,and questions, are rumored to have been agreed to in advance. ABC and McCain*Palin claim nothing is off the table . . . a nod to the news man they picked.
In my other blog I covered what is going on with her dodging the press. For the record, I agree with Rick Davis. She is not scared to answer questions. I think she is over anxious, and woefully unqualified Here is how the campaign put it ... emphasis is mine.
on day 9 :
Republican campaign manager Rick Davis sums it up as "This election is not about issues. This election is about a composite view of what people take away from these candidates."
on day 10 :
Here is a short transcript on the lack of interviews . . . FoxNews' Wallace vs Rick Davis, McCain Campaign manager
WALLACE: Why is she scared to answer...
DAVIS: I don't think our campaign...
WALLACE: Why is she scared to answer questions?
DAVIS: I don't think our campaign is the campaign that has not given immense amount of access to the press. That's the Obama campaign.
WALLACE: Why is she scared to answer questions?
DAVIS: She's not scared to answer questions. But you know what? We run our campaign, not the news media. And we'll do things on our timetable. And honestly, this last week was not an exemplary moment for the news media.
WALLACE: I understand that.
DAVIS: And so why would we want to throw Sarah Palin into a cycle of piranhas called the news media that have nothing better to ask questions about than her personal life and her children?
And I think our attitude would be why don't we let that pass until we expose her to...
WALLACE: I think there are legitimate questions that — and it doesn't have to be a huge news conference. I'm not telling you how to run your campaign.
DAVIS: Sure.
WALLACE: There are legitimate questions about is she or is she not ready to be commander in chief. If last week didn't work, why not this week?
DAVIS: Sarah Palin will have the opportunity to speak to the American people. She just gave a speech to 40 million Americans in her convention.
WALLACE: But that was reading a script. She's not answering questions.
DAVIS: She's in the process of, you know, getting to know people out on the campaign trail, and she will do interviews, but she'll do them on the terms and conditions of which the campaign decides that it's ready to do it.
Question;
Do Americans think that polls like this help or hinder Obama's cause?
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008 ... ion=justin
Basically a poll of over 20,000 people from over 20 countries were polled about who they preferred out of McCain and Obama and over triple the respondents preferred Obama over McCain (which in my mind, is not surprising at all).
The reason I ask is it really felt like last election when there was so much international support for Kerry and strong dislike and criticism of Bush, that many Americans responded defensively, which hardened their support of Bush, and essentially voted for him because the rest of the world disliked him (not with that direct thought process, but as an eventual consequence of the strong foreign views).
So do you think Americans are more likely to make an intelligent decision if the rest of the world doesn't offer "advice" or not?
Do Americans think that polls like this help or hinder Obama's cause?
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008 ... ion=justin
Basically a poll of over 20,000 people from over 20 countries were polled about who they preferred out of McCain and Obama and over triple the respondents preferred Obama over McCain (which in my mind, is not surprising at all).
The reason I ask is it really felt like last election when there was so much international support for Kerry and strong dislike and criticism of Bush, that many Americans responded defensively, which hardened their support of Bush, and essentially voted for him because the rest of the world disliked him (not with that direct thought process, but as an eventual consequence of the strong foreign views).
So do you think Americans are more likely to make an intelligent decision if the rest of the world doesn't offer "advice" or not?
realize what the situation is, and then do what the situation requires . . .
Party loyalty is inherited at 48%. Slightly higher for D, lower for R. Changes in how one perceives reality can change political party loyalty.
(A proponent of war that has a son drafted,
someone that hates gays till his child comes out,
Against national health care until they lose their house paying medical bills)
44% +/- a little of each parties voters are decided going into the race. I'm one of them, and like many others, what I perceive as reality hasn't changed, my political leaning hasn't changed.
So, 12% or so of the vote is actually up for grabs. I'm guessing 8-10% is uneducated, and not interested in politics at all. They can't be persuaded through intelligent discourse, but react to powerful, emotional language. This is where the republicans shine at picking up voters.
They will reach out to them by claiming to hate the government.
They will calm them down by finding a common enemy, taxes, social programs, homosexuals and promiscuous women seem to be popular now. Communist, terrorist, liberal, jew, black, latino, asian . . . there is a long list of people that have been used as a vague enemy in the history of the united states. The republicans do a great job of picking up additional votes by creating a panic, and then promising to protect us from it.
When polls come out that say foreigners support Obama, then the republicans will use it to create fear that the foreigners will be running our government . . . so yes, these polls hurt our chances for change because of WHO the swing voters are.
Party loyalty is inherited at 48%. Slightly higher for D, lower for R. Changes in how one perceives reality can change political party loyalty.
(A proponent of war that has a son drafted,
someone that hates gays till his child comes out,
Against national health care until they lose their house paying medical bills)
44% +/- a little of each parties voters are decided going into the race. I'm one of them, and like many others, what I perceive as reality hasn't changed, my political leaning hasn't changed.
So, 12% or so of the vote is actually up for grabs. I'm guessing 8-10% is uneducated, and not interested in politics at all. They can't be persuaded through intelligent discourse, but react to powerful, emotional language. This is where the republicans shine at picking up voters.
They will reach out to them by claiming to hate the government.
They will calm them down by finding a common enemy, taxes, social programs, homosexuals and promiscuous women seem to be popular now. Communist, terrorist, liberal, jew, black, latino, asian . . . there is a long list of people that have been used as a vague enemy in the history of the united states. The republicans do a great job of picking up additional votes by creating a panic, and then promising to protect us from it.
When polls come out that say foreigners support Obama, then the republicans will use it to create fear that the foreigners will be running our government . . . so yes, these polls hurt our chances for change because of WHO the swing voters are.
For people who can't read between lines, when Mathews said the GOP
has presented a cultural alternative to Obama, what he meant was that
people can now tell themselves they are progressive because they are
voting for a woman, and they won't have to admit to themselves that
they were unwilling to vote for a black man.
has presented a cultural alternative to Obama, what he meant was that
people can now tell themselves they are progressive because they are
voting for a woman, and they won't have to admit to themselves that
they were unwilling to vote for a black man.
AS an example of how the R's appeal to the uneducated on an emotional level, today they released an ad saying Obama has support legislation to teach sex education in kindergarden.
The charge is false. Obama supported legislation to protect young children from sexual predators.
It doesn't matter that the ad is a lie. People see it, and then repeat it. The campaign quietly says sorry, but not in a TV ad. People continue to spew it as truth.
If Obama addresses the ad directly, he brings the ad to the attention of voters . . . if he ignores it is must be true !!!
Oh how it must be exciting to be a swing voter . . .
The charge is false. Obama supported legislation to protect young children from sexual predators.
It doesn't matter that the ad is a lie. People see it, and then repeat it. The campaign quietly says sorry, but not in a TV ad. People continue to spew it as truth.
If Obama addresses the ad directly, he brings the ad to the attention of voters . . . if he ignores it is must be true !!!
Oh how it must be exciting to be a swing voter . . .
I feel momentum swinging back to Obama in the next few days as the Palin hype wanes. I could be wrong, but :
Sarah Palin has a huge pile of shit in front of her. Team obama just deployed 30 people with shovels and a large fan into the room. McCain has sent 50 Lawyers and PR specialist to do damage control. Palin is schedule to speak her first unscripted words to the American people this week with Charlie Gibson. The interview will take place in the context of her son leaving for Iraq. Gibson has a reputation to uphold after the treatment of the democratic candidates in the primaries. He can't go totally softball on this, but it isn't expected to be hardball either.
In other news, McCain walked out of his first campaign stop done solo since adding Palin to the team. It seems the top of the ticket is nothing with out his lipstick.
Another major issue, even bigger than pigs and lipstick. America became a socialist country this week. It happened on the republicans watch. The government seized control of the two largest lending companies, taking on the ownership and administration of credit. How this will play out in the context of the campaign is anybody's guess.
Sarah Palin has a huge pile of shit in front of her. Team obama just deployed 30 people with shovels and a large fan into the room. McCain has sent 50 Lawyers and PR specialist to do damage control. Palin is schedule to speak her first unscripted words to the American people this week with Charlie Gibson. The interview will take place in the context of her son leaving for Iraq. Gibson has a reputation to uphold after the treatment of the democratic candidates in the primaries. He can't go totally softball on this, but it isn't expected to be hardball either.
In other news, McCain walked out of his first campaign stop done solo since adding Palin to the team. It seems the top of the ticket is nothing with out his lipstick.
Another major issue, even bigger than pigs and lipstick. America became a socialist country this week. It happened on the republicans watch. The government seized control of the two largest lending companies, taking on the ownership and administration of credit. How this will play out in the context of the campaign is anybody's guess.
I personally believe that this interview timing is bullshit.
They waited 13 days so she could speak her first words on 9/11, the day her son has a celebration to go fight the war on terror.
The obvious manipulation of peoples pride in their country is disgusting, but it might pick up some of these voters that haven't decided yet. Honor and Integrity, are not qualities normally associated with republican campaigns, and we won't be seeing any this election either.
They waited 13 days so she could speak her first words on 9/11, the day her son has a celebration to go fight the war on terror.
The obvious manipulation of peoples pride in their country is disgusting, but it might pick up some of these voters that haven't decided yet. Honor and Integrity, are not qualities normally associated with republican campaigns, and we won't be seeing any this election either.
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Frank_Sinatra
- Avenging Disco Godfather
- Posts: 1660
- Joined: 09 Jan 2007 12:43
- Location: Chicago, IL
Well, here's as good a place as any for this shit.
I have 24/7 free time in my life and I have been watching the campaign for president intensely. The more I read about history and politics and the more I see on TV, the more I get the feeling it's all bullshit. I mean, we all KNOW it's bullshit, but I'm saying it's all just a fake-ass show that leads "normal" americans to believe they actually have a say in what the country does. You don't, sorry.
I don't support either major party candidates. So basically, I don't count for shit. I feel useless AS an american everyday since I don't agree with Option A or Option A(2). The people that I would consider to represent me are laughed? at, given no time on TV and are looked down upon by the general public, dismissed as a joke. Or in some cases, lies and slander are committed against them and they have no competitive way to respond or retaliate so people just ASSUME it's true, because they heard it on TV. The system is fucked. Props to DonC for proving my point and perpetuating such nonsense that Obama is muslim. You are an idiot and what blows me away is that you would fight to your grave over him being a muslim, you pathetic piece of shit, IT'S A NON-ISSUE, WHO GIVES A FUCK?
I cannot believe how genuinely stupid the american public is. I wish everyday I could just pack up and leave this country, but there is no point because that won't change shit. When I see someone showing "patriotism" or just being an all around amerifag, I get so embarrassed I can't even look at them. People voting on the abortion issue? WHO GIVES A FUCK? Is that really why we should pick a president? One issue? And with all the current problems, why abortion? It's like thinking about how your hair looks during a zombie outbreak, who gives a fuck RIGHT now? Do people understand priorities?
My point and relevance to this thread? Nothing you guys talk about will change anything. We will still kill people, which is ALWAYS justifiable. We will always be limiting freedoms, but people will eat that shit up and call it SECURITY. There are no real sides, both sides have their strengths and weaknesses. Too bad they are too fucking stupid to realize this to work together as one party, for one party, america. The whole idea of separating republican vs. democrat vs any party is just pointless and wastes time. We have been off the path of obtaining the true america since George Washington stepped down.
The fact that all of this exists makes me also wish I wasn't human. The fact that people actually think modern politics matter blows me away. It's like riding a bicycle with two flats, bent crank, broken chain with no handlebars and then arguing and fighting about what color it should be. Incredibly inefficient use of time. By studying politics this past year or so, I've completely lost all faith in humankind. Sorry, maybe I should just say americans, as I can't speak for other countries.
We are all going to die and the cake is a fucking lie.
Continue meaningless chatter so you feel like you matter.
I don't support either major party candidates. So basically, I don't count for shit. I feel useless AS an american everyday since I don't agree with Option A or Option A(2). The people that I would consider to represent me are laughed? at, given no time on TV and are looked down upon by the general public, dismissed as a joke. Or in some cases, lies and slander are committed against them and they have no competitive way to respond or retaliate so people just ASSUME it's true, because they heard it on TV. The system is fucked. Props to DonC for proving my point and perpetuating such nonsense that Obama is muslim. You are an idiot and what blows me away is that you would fight to your grave over him being a muslim, you pathetic piece of shit, IT'S A NON-ISSUE, WHO GIVES A FUCK?
I cannot believe how genuinely stupid the american public is. I wish everyday I could just pack up and leave this country, but there is no point because that won't change shit. When I see someone showing "patriotism" or just being an all around amerifag, I get so embarrassed I can't even look at them. People voting on the abortion issue? WHO GIVES A FUCK? Is that really why we should pick a president? One issue? And with all the current problems, why abortion? It's like thinking about how your hair looks during a zombie outbreak, who gives a fuck RIGHT now? Do people understand priorities?
My point and relevance to this thread? Nothing you guys talk about will change anything. We will still kill people, which is ALWAYS justifiable. We will always be limiting freedoms, but people will eat that shit up and call it SECURITY. There are no real sides, both sides have their strengths and weaknesses. Too bad they are too fucking stupid to realize this to work together as one party, for one party, america. The whole idea of separating republican vs. democrat vs any party is just pointless and wastes time. We have been off the path of obtaining the true america since George Washington stepped down.
The fact that all of this exists makes me also wish I wasn't human. The fact that people actually think modern politics matter blows me away. It's like riding a bicycle with two flats, bent crank, broken chain with no handlebars and then arguing and fighting about what color it should be. Incredibly inefficient use of time. By studying politics this past year or so, I've completely lost all faith in humankind. Sorry, maybe I should just say americans, as I can't speak for other countries.
We are all going to die and the cake is a fucking lie.
Continue meaningless chatter so you feel like you matter.
James Randall