2015-2016 NBA season

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Re: 2015-2016 NBA season

Post by C-Fan » 15 Mar 2016 08:25

That is an AMAZING dream. I wish.

We're entering the last month of the regular season now. Normally I'd worry about the good teams starting to rest for the playoffs, but with the Spurs and Warriors realistically challenging the wins record, I'm hopeful they push hard to the end of the season.

In Fantasy news, I think the playoffs are about to start soon. I have the 2nd or 3rd best record in the league, but I'm only second in my conference, so I don't think I automatically clinched a spot. I recently made 2 strategic pickups that I'm excited and nervous about.

I got Luol Deng off the waiver, since the Bosh injury frees up minutes for somebody. Similarly, Wade tends to break down at some point in the season. The bet here for me is that Deng will soak up some combo of minutes from both of these guys, and be a sneaky good source of stats in the (fantasy) playoffs.

The other player I picked up, was none other than Lance Stephenson. I know, he's crazy. Still, the Grizz have a ton of injuries, no playmakers now that Conley is out, and they have every incentive to not drop out of the playoffs (I believe they lose their pick and it goes to the Nuggets). Add all that up, and I think there's a good chance Lance is the main beneficiary for the next month. Of course, he just sat out last night with an injury right after I picked him up. I'm still cautiously optimistic here.

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Re: 2015-2016 NBA season

Post by C-Fan » 15 Apr 2016 09:20

Watched the Warriors final game of the season with Justin Dale and Reilley Adamson in Seattle. We were all hoping for 3 things:

1. The Warriors win, to set the all time wins record of 73.
2. Curry hit at least 8 threes, to get to 400 threes in a season.
3. Curry hit 13 threes, to set the record for most threes in a game.

We got our wish on the first two, but not the third. Honestly, the Grizz knew they'd lose, and they also knew about Curry's records, so it's kind of amazing he still made 10 threes, since the Grizz were pretty much double teaming him at the 3P line every possession.

In Fantasy NBA, I think I finished the season in 3rd place. That's both disappointing and a little confusing, since in the 3 playoff rounds I believe I won the first, tied the second, and won the third. The tied round was brutal, since if any of my guys had scored a single point at any game that week, I would have won outright. But yeah, considering the injuries my roster had this year, I'm proud I did as well as I did. Here's the list of players I had on my roster that were eventually ruled out for the season with season-ending injuries: Anthony Davis, Marc Gasol (so my top 2 picks), Jrue Holiday, Ryan Anderson, and...one other guy I'm forgetting. But yeah, that's a lot of firepower to lose in a season.

Anyway, Fantasy was always just a way to kill time until the playoffs, which are kicking off this weekend! There are 2 games on ABC, and I'm hoping the TNT ones are streamed online. If so, it'd be awesome to watch a few games, since I don't have cable.

I think in the first round the matchup that looks most interesting to me is the Clipper-Blazers one, where the Blazers have an outside chance at an upset. I'm also kind of interested in seeing Harden try and win a game by himself against the Warriors.

In awards news, I'm curious to see if Curry is the unanimous MVP, and if Towns is the unanimous ROY. Both deserve it, and I don't think either scenario has ever happened before.

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Re: 2015-2016 NBA season

Post by C-Fan » 29 Apr 2016 09:21

Been catching games here and there from the 1st round. Scattered thoughts:

:arrow: Spurs swept Memphis, to the surprise of nobody. Memphis was so banged up, I believe any team in the playoffs in either conference likely would have swept them. Only real implication here is that the Spurs are going into round 2 very well rested.

:arrow: Curry's knee injury is a bummer, but the timing worked out pretty well. If you're the Warriors, you definitely would prefer Curry get injured in the first round when you can beat the Rockets without him, rather than in the Finals or West Finals when he's likely the key to advancing. Still, bit of a bummer he's injured.

:arrow: Clippers were excited about Curry's injury, since that theoretically meant they'd face a Curry-less Warriors for 3-4 games in Round 2, provided they close out the Blazers quickly. This optimism lasted about 10 hours before CP3 and Blake got playoff ending injuries in the same game. Clips are dead in the water.

:arrow: On a related note, I'm curious to see what the Clips franchise does moving forward. In the CP3-Blake era, the team hasn't even made a conference finals yet. A lot of that is luck and matchups, but still. CP3 is 31, they're not getting younger overall, and they're carrying a lot of salary. Will they react with a trade? If so, who do you trade?

:arrow: Does anybody think the Cavs don't come out of the East? The Raptors have looked shaky, the Hawks match up OK but don't really scare me, the Pistons weren't able to take a single game off them, the Heat look old and shaky. I guess I'd say the Hawks have the best chance, but I'd be shocked if they won more than 2 games in a series with the Cavs.

:arrow: The only 2nd round matchup that's set in the West is Spurs and Thunder. I'm pretty excited for this series. When both Durant and Westbrook are healthy, they've always matched up well against the Spurs. But that was before Kawhi's emergence, to say nothing of Aldridge being on the team. I'll be very curious to see who Kawhi defends in each game. I hope/expect this series goes 7.

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Re: 2015-2016 NBA season

Post by C-Fan » 10 May 2016 09:08

Scattered thoughts on the second round of the playoffs:

:arrow: Cavs swept the Hawks. I still think the Hawks are the 2nd best team in the East, so I have no faith either TOR or MIA can take a game off them. The real question with the Cavs is what lineup they'd run in the Finals. The Frye-Love combo at the 4-5 is insane for 3P shooting, but I don't know if that's defensively viable against the Spurs/Thunder/Warriors.

:arrow: Curry got his second MVP. No surprise here; definitely deserved.

:arrow: I went to bed at halftime last night, so I missed the Warriors-Blazers game going to OT and then Steph hitting 10 points in the 4Q and 17 in OT. He finished with 40/9/8. Didn't look too rusty. Now the Blazers are down 3-1, Curry is back, and the series is headed to Oakland for Game 5. I don't see the Blazers coming back from this one.

:arrow: Heat-Raptors has been a close series, but man it's unwatchable. Just terrible shooting all around, sloppy play, just blech. It doesn't even matter who wins, since the Cavs are just going to slaughter the winner in the East Finals. Put this one out of its misery already.

:arrow: Spurs-Thunder has been a lot more fun to watch. Both teams look a little flawed, and I wouldn't be surprised if this series goes to 7. Assuming the Warriors close out their series in 5, they'll be starting the West Finals on their homecourt against a tired Spurs or Thunder, with not a lot of rest. I like the Warriors' path to the Finals again.

:arrow: Assuming Curry stays healthy, I think it's Warriors over Cavs in 6.

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Re: 2015-2016 NBA season

Post by C-Fan » 19 May 2016 08:48

I didn't make a lot of formal predictions going into the playoffs, so I thought I'd make some now, as well as note what has surprised me and what hasn't.

First round East:

:arrow: Cavs swept the Pistons. No real surprise to me, though I hoped the Pistons might scrap one win out.
:arrow: Raps beat Pacers in 7. Guess I was a bit surprised the Pacers extended this to 7, but I expected the Raps to win and they did.
:arrow: Heat beat Charlotte in 7. Basically same as above.
:arrow: Hawks beat Celts. Expected this one too, based on matchups and how regular season went. No real surprises in East first round.

First round West:

:arrow: Warriors beat Rockets in 5. Surprised how listless the Rockets were in this series. Even with the Curry injury, victory in 5 was pretty much expected.
:arrow: Spurs sweep Memphis. Everybody expected this.
:arrow: Thunder beat Dallas in 5. The surprise here was the Thunder dropping a game due to sloppiness.
:arrow: Blazers over Clippers. This one was a surprise. I thought there was upset potential before the injuries, but once Game 4 happened and Paul and Blake got hurt, we knew it was over.

Semis East:

:arrow: Cavs sweep Hawks. I expected the Hawks to put up a bit more of a fight, but the Cavs were healthy and shooting lights out. I didn't expect a sweep.
:arrow: Raps beat Heat in 7. Both teams were injured and playing badly, so it was a bit of a coin flip. I would have bet on Heat since they have more experience, but home court helped the Raps.

Semis West:
:arrow: Warriors beat Blazers. Even with the Curry injury, the Blazers were going to be underdogs. Not a surprise.
:arrow: Thunder beat Spurs in 6. This one was a surprise. I favored the Spurs going into the series, and after the game 1 blowout I thought the Thunder would be lucky to win in 7. Then they went and beat the Spurs in San Antonio twice in 3 games. Crazy series.

East Finals:
:arrow: Even before game 1 I predicted a sweep. I still do.

West Finals:
:arrow: I predicted Warriors in 6, and I stand by that. Game 1 the Warriors didn't play like themselves, and still it was a close loss. Game 2 they played like the Warriors, and blew out the Thunder by 27. I think the Thunder win one more game at home if both Durant and Westbrook go off in the same game, but I don't think the Warriors lose the series. The Thunder's best asset now is the double big lineup of Kanter-Adams, but that doesn't work against a team that can shoot like the Warriors.

Finals:
:arrow: I'm predicting the Warriors in 6, maybe 7.

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Re: 2015-2016 NBA season

Post by Asmus » 20 May 2016 01:46

I love reading your thoughts Ken and I agree a lot.

Two other interesting news is that Knicks hired Hornesacker. Better than Rambis. Gonna work well with Melo and Porslingdiiick.

Magic picking up Vogel as a head coach is a real scoop for them. Definitely looking forward to see what he will do with that team.

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Re: 2015-2016 NBA season

Post by C-Fan » 23 May 2016 12:58

Asmus wrote: Knicks hired Hornesacker. Better than Rambis..
My dog is a better coach than Rambis.

Didn't get to see much of the Thunder-Warriors game last night, since I've been running around like crazy getting ready for Japan. Speaking of which, I'm probably not going to see much more NBA this season because of the trip. We get back on June 8, the Finals start June 2, so I'll be lucky if I get back in time to see Game 3. :(

Oh well, at least I'll be able to see the championship game. That should be pretty fun.

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Re: 2015-2016 NBA season

Post by C-Fan » 10 Jun 2016 10:04

No NBA watching while I was in Japan, but I followed the results online a bit. Apparently I missed a historically good Western Finals between the Warriors and Thunder.

I did make it back in time to watch Game 3, but I came in at the half and it quickly became a blow out. Game 4 is tonight, but I can't watch cause we have a dinner scheduled. I'm predicting the Warriors bounce back and take a 3-1 lead home to Oakland, where they close them out in 5. Basically, I think Kevin Love playing hurts the Cavs, so him missing Game 3 was a blessing in disguise, and his return will hurt them. We'll see!

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Re: 2015-2016 NBA season

Post by Asmus » 11 Jun 2016 08:21

Aaaand you were right..

Pretty good game though. Feel like Cavs just did not play it smart at the end.Hero-ball for the last 8 minutes and then keep on making the splash brothers shoot free throws for the last two.

I hope LeBron get's MVP even if they loose. I feel like he deserves it.

I really hope this happens:

Cavs trade Kevin Love to Boston. Knicks trade Carmelo Anthony to Cavs. Boston trades one first round 2016 pick and one first round 2017 pick to Knicks.

Cavs trade Kyrie Irving and a second round pick to Clippers. Clippersrs trade Chris Paul to Cavs.

I feel like the second trade need to happen for Carmelo to agree with the first trade.

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Re: 2015-2016 NBA season

Post by C-Fan » 11 Jun 2016 16:47

If the Cavs lose the Finals (and I think they will), then they really need to trade Love. The question is; what's the market for him going to be like? Unless the Cavs are willing to take a discount, I don't think they're going to find a lot of trade partners who will give them what they want.

The Cavs really are in a tough situation. Their 3 best players are:

:arrow: LeBron. They need to build the team around him, he NEEDS to play power forward full time, he needs to be the main ball handler, and they need to stop wasting his prime years. He's their only star who plays offense and defense. We'll get to why this is important in a moment.

:arrow: Kyrie. Great offense, poor defense. Even worse defense when his offense isn't going. Main problem with him is that he is so ball dominant, and every minute the ball is in his hands is time that the ball isn't in LeBron's hand. He's a good enough shooter to be a deadly spot up option, but this isn't how he (wants to) plays.

:arrow: Love. Potentially great offense, poor defense. Main problem here is that his natural position is the 4, but if he's playing that LeBron is playing the 3, which means that playing Love either means LeBron (your best player) is not playing his most effective position, or Love is relegated to being a spot up shooter (making him less effective). So just positionally, he's not a good fit to play with LeBrown. Now the problem with his defense: you can kind of get away with playing one below-average player on the floor, but if you try and play 2 (e.g. Love and Kyrie) at the same time, you're likely doomed.

So based on the above, I think as long as the Cavs are trying to build around these 3 guys, they can't win. Kyrie and LeBron together is awkward because Kyrie dominates the ball when LeBron should. Love and LeBron is awkward because they both should play the 4. Kyrie and Love is awkward because they are both below-average defenders. It's just not a good mix. If the Cavs can trade Love for a couple wing "3 and D" guys, they'd be a lot better off.

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Re: 2015-2016 NBA season

Post by C-Fan » 23 Jun 2016 07:54

Game 7 was AMAZING. The whole series I was just hoping for a close game, and we finally got one. There's nothing I like more than an NBA game that's tied in the last 2 minutes, and to get one in Game 7 of the Finals felt like Christmas morning.

A few quick thoughts:

:arrow: A lot of people are asking who is to blame for the Warriors losing Game 7 specifically, and the Finals in general. While I've seen a lot of names floated (Warrior centers, Curry, Kerr for playing the Warrior centers in Game 7, Draymond for getting suspended in Game 6, etc.), there is only one name that belongs here: LeBron. LeBron is directly responsible for the Warriors losing the series.

:arrow: Narratives flip on the smallest of margins. Game 7 was tied in the last few minutes, and it could have flipped different ways based on any number of plays going differently. What if Iggy went for a dunk instead of a double clutch layup? What if Kyrie doesn't hit that crazy 3 (which was well defended by Curry)? What if Curry doesn't have the careless behind the back turnover? Etc. etc. etc. Any number of plays go differently and the Warriors win it. But with sports, we want these black and white narratives, where LeBron is a loser and the Warriors are in the conversation for best team ever, or the Warriors are huge chokers and LeBron is better than Jordan. Guess what? It was a close game and a close series, and neither of those narratives can be entirely true.

:arrow: What's next for the Cavs? LeBron has accomplished his mission, so even if he never wins another championship or even never plays another game, he can retire in peace. He climbed the mountain. I actually think that he'll stay in Cleveland and try and win another one, but he doesn't even have to. The bigger questions for the Cavs revolve around the rest of the roster. I still don't think Love is a good fit, even though he redeemed himself in Game 7. I still think they need to get more wing depth. In a perfect world they'd trade off Love and Shumpert, but with the salaries those guys have I don't know how they get equal value back. I don't think they can keep Dellavedova moneywise, especially since they have to pay JR Smith now. With the size of their payroll and their lack of picks, it's going to be tricky for the Cavs to adjust their roster to keep their current firepower. But all it takes is one trade with Love...

:arrow: What's next for the Warriors? They lost Bogut to injury, Draymond for 1 game due to hot headedness, Barnes and Ezeli crapped the bed in the Finals, and Curry wasn't 100% healthwise after the injury in Round 1. And they still came within 2 minutes of winning the championship. You really don't want to blow up a team that was that close. But you also can't trot out a center lineup of Bogut/Varejao/Ezeli and beat the elite teams. The Warriors need to figure out what they do with the contracts for Barnes, Iggy, Ezeli, and Bogut and there are no easy answers.

More later.

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Re: 2015-2016 NBA season

Post by C-Fan » 27 Jun 2016 10:10

Hey Asmus, what are your thoughts on the Knicks acquiring Derrick Rose?

The big news that came out around the draft was the Thunder trading Ibaka for Oladipo, Ilyasova, and Domantas Sabonis (the 11th pick). For the Thunder, I thought it was a very good move. Ibaka is a good player, but the way the Thunder are currently constructed he wasn't going to be used to his max ability. Between Durant's ranged offense, and Adams emerging as their best defensive big, Ibaka wasn't a great fit anymore, and his numbers last year reflected this. So with one year left on his contract and the cap set to explode, why not trade him for cheaper assets that address areas of need on your team? I fully expect Durant will sign a 2 year contract with a player option (if he enters free agency this summer, he's considered a 9 yr player, but if he enters next summer as a 10 year player it allows teams to give him a higher percentage of the cap), so look at this projected starting lineup:

1. Westbrook
2. Oladipo
3. Roberson
4. Durant
5. Adams

Not bad, especially defensively.

Speaking of stacked teams, the US Olympic team was announced: Carmelo Anthony; Harrison Barnes ; Jimmy Butler; DeMarcus Cousins ; DeMar DeRozan ; Kevin Durant; Paul George; Draymond Green; Kyrie Irving; DeAndre Jordan ; Kyle Lowry; and Klay Thompson.

I really like the look of this team. It's got size, shooting, positional flexibility, and a bit of an attitude. I fully expect them to sweep their way through Rio.

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Re: 2015-2016 NBA season

Post by Asmus » 27 Jun 2016 23:58

I feel like it was a great trade. I am not convinced Jeriant Grant is a NBA player and Jose Calderon is on the way out for sure. I like Robin Lopez a lot both as a player and as a person, but you got to give something up to get something back.

Justin Holliday is definitely a NBA player and I look forward to see him for the Knicks.
It is nice to see the Knicks finally acquire DRAFT picks and not giving them away. I would have been happy with this trade even without the pick.

When Derrick Rose is injury free he is in my humble opinion still a top 10 point guard in the NBA. Can he stay away from injury? No idea. He is also used to a big market and loads of pressure, so he should be able to handle NY just fine.

Now we just need a center. Any suggestions Ken?

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Re: 2015-2016 NBA season

Post by C-Fan » 29 Jun 2016 07:53

Oh man, your post made my brain go into overdrive with thoughts.
Asmus wrote:I feel like it was a great trade. I am not convinced Jeriant Grant is a NBA player and Jose Calderon is on the way out for sure. I like Robin Lopez a lot both as a player and as a person, but you got to give something up to get something back.
I don't really know Grant or Holiday, so I can't comment on them beyond the whispers I hear that Holliday is better than Grant. As for Calderon, I agree that he's expendable. Nice enough backup PG, but you know he's not getting better, and I don't think he was particularly cheap either. As for Lopez, I think he's maybe the best backup Center in the league. So that's a big deal to give up in a trade.
Asmus wrote:When Derrick Rose is injury free he is in my humble opinion still a top 10 point guard in the NBA.
I don't think Rose is as bad as people make him out to be, especially when you consider his eye issues for the first 3rd of last season. Is he a top 10 PG? Off the top of my head lets see if we can list 10 better pgs: Westbrook, Paul, Curry, Conley, Lillard, John Wall, Teague, Isaiah Thomas, Rubio, Schroeder. That's 10 that are established easily better, and then you have the list of young guys who are likely going to be better than Rose going forward starting this season, including D'Angelo Russell and Mudiay, and maybe even Kris Dunn. I think top 10 is a stretch for Rose.
Asmus wrote:Now we just need a center. Any suggestions Ken?
Are you kidding me? Please tell me you're kidding. You already have the Center of the future on your team; he just needs to start playing that position. Porzingis needs to fulfill his destiny, and embrace becoming the first true stretch 5 in NBA history. If the Knicks are serious about winning anything, they need to play Melo at the 4 and Zinger at the 5. Then build around the team from there, making sure those two guys play those positions full time.

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Re: 2015-2016 NBA season

Post by Asmus » 30 Jun 2016 02:21

"I think top 10 is a stretch for Rose."

I had him on one of my fantasy teams and he had months last season where he was placed between 5-10. I think he is in the mix somewhere after Wall. Oh, man I love John Wall. Hope he plays well this season.

"You already have the Center of the future on your team; he just needs to start playing that position. Porzingis needs to fulfill his destiny, and embrace becoming the first true stretch 5 in NBA history."

I agree, but I still think we need a center. Porzingis is gonna be destroyed against people like Drummond, Cousins, Howard, Whiteside and Jordan. We need a big man that can holds his own against these kinda players. Whiteside and Howard are way too expensive and as you say we should focus on Por-Sling-Diiick. I think the best options are Mahinmi, Mozgov and Pachuli.

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Re: 2015-2016 NBA season

Post by C-Fan » 30 Jun 2016 09:36

Asmus wrote: I think the best options are Mahinmi, Mozgov and Pachuli.
I think Noah would be a better fit than those guys. If I were a Knicks fan, the one thing I'd be praying for is no Dwight. But yeah, getting somebody like Noah as a backup/insurance for Zinger wouldn't be bad.

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Re: 2015-2016 NBA season

Post by C-Fan » 05 Jul 2016 10:47

Well, looks like the Knicks did indeed get Noah. Can't say I like how much they paid for him, but he should be a good fit for a couple years. Those last years on his contract, at that annual price though...they're going to regret that for sure.
C-Fan wrote: I fully expect Durant will sign a 2 year contract with a player option (if he enters free agency this summer, he's considered a 9 yr player, but if he enters next summer as a 10 year player it allows teams to give him a higher percentage of the cap),.
A couple days after writing that, I listened to a podcast where somebody pointed out: there's nothing stopping him from doing a 2 year contract with a player option, on ANOTHER team. Sure enough, that's what he ended up doing. I was definitely a bit surprised to see him leave the Thunder. As for the Warriors, this is fantastic news for at least the following 4 reasons:

1. Say KD stays with the Thunder. Who would be the biggest threat to the Warriors next year? Definitely the Thunder. So by poaching Durant from the Thunder, they effectively crippled the only threat to them in the West, while also making themselves stronger.
2. Ezeli and Barnes were unrestricted free agents this summer. They were also awful in the Finals last year. But given the dynamics of the market, if KD stayed with the Thunder the Warriors would have probably brought them both back (they had extended qualifying offers), at very high price tags. Once KD agreed to join, the Warriors had to let Ezeli and Barnes walk. But even if KD didn't join, I would have been in favor of letting Ezeli and Barnes leave. So the fact that KD joining forced them out, is like addition by subtraction...plus addition by addition (KD).
3. KD didn't go to the Spurs or Cavs. These are the two team changes that would have scared the Warriors.
4. After the KD trade, the Warriors were super thin at Center, and there were very few good options left on the market. The Warriors also had almost no money left to sign anybody ($2.9M). Then they go and get Zaza for that price. Literally the best available center, willing to take a paycut. So that worked out pretty well for them.

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Re: 2015-2016 NBA season

Post by C-Fan » 15 Aug 2016 08:02

C-Fan wrote:
Speaking of stacked teams, the US Olympic team was announced: Carmelo Anthony; Harrison Barnes ; Jimmy Butler; DeMarcus Cousins ; DeMar DeRozan ; Kevin Durant; Paul George; Draymond Green; Kyrie Irving; DeAndre Jordan ; Kyle Lowry; and Klay Thompson.

I really like the look of this team. It's got size, shooting, positional flexibility, and a bit of an attitude. I fully expect them to sweep their way through Rio.
So far they are 5-0 in pool play, but man, I'm a lot less optimistic now. We've had like 3 games decided by 3 pts or less, which is just not what I expected to see. I think there's still a great chance we win Gold, but it doesn't look like it's going to be the cakewalk I expected.

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Re: 2015-2016 NBA season

Post by Asmus » 15 Aug 2016 22:56

This is all I have to say about the US olympic team.

Image

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