2017-2018 NBA Season

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TG NBA check in

Post by C-Fan » 22 Nov 2017 07:46

Asmus wrote:
08 Nov 2017 00:04
if Bledsoe starts playing defense like he used to, they might not have to surround The Freak with shooters they can just win games with a crazy defense.
I know Bledsoe used to have a reputation as a great defender, but I never saw any stats that actually bore that out. He's athletic so he passes the eye test, but his on court defense stats never popped out. As of today, the Bucks have 8 wins and 8 losses. If the playoffs started today, they'd be out. I don't expect that'll be the case by April when the playoffs do start, but still not the best start for a team with a presumptive MVP candidate.

Speaking of standings, here are the 5 teams with the best records through Thanksgiving:

1. Boston (16-2)
2 (T). Houston and Golden State (13-4)
4. Toronto (11-5)
5(T). Detroit and San Antonio (11-6)

The biggest surprises in there for me are Detroit with the hot start, Boston on a 16 game win streak after losing Hayward and basically fielding a totally new team, and SA and Houston doing this well despite missing Kawhi and CP3 respectively as long as they have.

On the Fantasy Basketball front, things are going OK. I lost the first week's matchup, then won the next 3. I've found some good guys off the wire, notably Lauri Markannen and Tyreke Evans. My biggest disappointment so far has been Myles Turner, who was the second most expensive guy on my roster. He missed 7 games due to a concussion, and he's been inconsistent since getting back. He has games where he shows flashes of why I was so high on him, but when you look at other guys like Kristaps and Draymond who went for around the same price in my draft, he definitely feels like a bust.

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Blake goes down

Post by C-Fan » 28 Nov 2017 13:40

Quick Fantasy NBA check in.

Week 7 of the season just started. I lost my first week of Fantasy, then went on to win 5 in a row. I'm glad I built a bit of a buffer in the standings, as Blake Griffin got a bad knee injury yesterday. Sounds like he may be out for 2 months, and with the Clippers already so bad in the standings, they have no incentive to rush him back either. I need to decide if I keep him as dead weight on my roster for 2 months, or cut him (and my losses) already and just dump him for somebody on the waiver wire. The former option may be smarter, if I think my record can carry me to the playoffs and then Blake will be back as an asset to help me when it counts. The latter option is probably safer for getting me to the playoffs, but then I won't have him to help me once I'm there. I knew Blake was an injury risk when I drafted him, but I factored that into his pricetag. I don't regret having drafted him at the price I did.

In real world NBA news, I'm a bit surprised that this deep into the season the Thunder and the Bucks are not gelling better. If the playoffs began today, neither of them would be in. That's crazy. Also crazy that we're almost in December, and Kawhi still hasn't played a game yet. Spurs are still 13-7 on the season without him.

I still haven't seen anything that changes my mind about the Warriors winning it all. The Rockets are playing well, but I don't see anything in their composition that would lead me to think they could upset the Warriors. Cavs look worse than last year, and even if the Celtics upset the Cavs to make the Finals, I also don't see them beating the Warriors.

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Very injured NBA Season

Post by C-Fan » 04 Dec 2017 08:29

Hard to believe the season is already 7 weeks in the books. I've only seen a couple games so far, due to a variety of factors. I have a couple work trips in the spring though, so maybe I can catch some games then.

Standings: The standings in the East and West have normalized a good bit. In the East, pretty much all the teams you'd expect will make the playoffs are in the top 8, with the exception of the Knicks who are just one game out. Not much stands out in the East, other than the Pistons and 76ers being a bit better than I would have expected at this point of the season. Out West, the only real surprises to me are that the Thunder are in 9th and that the Spurs are 15-8 despite zero games of Kawhi so far.

Injuries: The only wet blanket on the season so far has been the high number of injuries to stars. Kawhi still hasn't played a game, CP3 missed a bunch of games, Blake is out 2 months, Brow just went down over the weekend, Hayward is missing the season after 5 mins of playing, Conley has missed most of the season, Wall is missing time, Myles Turner missed a bunch of time with a concussion, Curry and Durant have been a bit banged up, etc. Just seems like a higher than normal amount of injuries, really hurting teams.

Fantasy update: I decided to keep Blake on my team despite knowing he'll be dead weight for 2 months if not longer. It's definitely a risk, but the way I look at it the only thing that matters is winning the season. Winning weeks 8, 9, 10 or whatever doesn't really matter. If I can stay afloat enough to make the playoffs and then I get Blake back for the final push, that's worth more than padding my record in these middle months and entering the finals with a weaker roster. Or even worse, facing somebody in the finals who picked up Blake after I cut him, and having him really hurt me then. Blake getting injured was definitely a bummer, but at least he isn't out for the whole season. As I mentioned above, injuries have hit a bunch of stars so I'm hoping things are evened out somewhat across the teams in my fantasy league. My record now is 6-1, and I'm facing the weakest team in the league this week. So assuming I don't get any more major injuries in the next month or so, I like my chances at keeping my record afloat while Blake is out.

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Re: Very injured NBA Season

Post by C-Fan » 06 Dec 2017 08:49

C-Fan wrote:
04 Dec 2017 08:29

Injuries: The only wet blanket on the season so far has been the high number of injuries to stars. Curry and Durant have been a bit banged up, etc. Just seems like a higher than normal amount of injuries, really hurting teams.
And then like a day after I post this, Devin Booker goes down with a bad groin injury and Curry goes down with a bad ankle sprain. Yikes.

While injuries have hurt me in fantasy (Blake out 2 months, Myles not looking right), I think it's important to remember that they have also helped me. Tyreke Evans has been a beast for me, but if Conley weren't out he probably wouldn't have produced this much. Same could be said with Jaylen Brown (Hayward), Rondo/Jrue (Davis), and Donovan Mitchell (Hood).

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Third mark check in

Post by C-Fan » 11 Dec 2017 09:25

NBA season is about 1/3 of the way done. Kinda hard to believe really. Looking at the standings, things look about the same as the last time I checked in. The East playoff picture is about what you'd expect it to be, with no real surprise teams in/out. The West has settled some too, with only OKC really surprising me as being out of the playoffs. Also of note, the Rockets have been scorching hot.

A few random thoughts on my Fantasy league:

:arrow: Week 8 just finished. I am now on a 7 week win streak, which means I'm tied for 1st overall in the league, and in 1st in my division.
:arrow: I've got a better understanding now of how my league credits stats. In traditional leagues, fg% and ft% matter a lot, as do turnovers and rare counting stats like steals and blocks. This league is almost more like a straight points league, where you're just chasing counting stats. My recent waiver wire moves have reflected this, and have helped me stay afloat while I carry injured players on my roster.
:arrow: My overall plan is still to carry Blake on my roster until he comes back. The idea being that as long as I can stay afloat enough to make the playoffs, Blake will help me when it counts at the end of the season. He is scheduled to miss 8 weeks, and I've won the first 2 weeks of that period. If I can go .500 over the total recovery span I'll view this as a good decision.
:arrow: Kawhi still has yet to play a single game this season. He's targeting a return soon, so I'm making more serious offers to his owner to get him. I feel like there's so many decent players still on the wire, I can easily do a 3:1 or 2:1 trade and still make up some of that value off of the waiver. So far though, I don't think a single trade has happened in my league.

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We got ourselves a trade!

Post by C-Fan » 15 Dec 2017 09:36

https://twitter.com/treykerby/status/56 ... 40?lang=en

Big news in my Fantasy league: we have our first trade of the season! Unsurprisingly, I was involved in it. For the past month or so I've been actively shopping Marc Gasol in trade offers, and this week somebody finally bit. Tu Vu sent me a counter trade offer, which I eventually accepted. Gory breakdown to follow, but here's the actual transaction:

I traded:
:arrow: Marc Gasol
:arrow: Jrue Holiday

and I received:
:arrow: Kyrie Irving
:arrow: Andrew Wiggins

So first, some backstory on why I was shopping Gasol. On draft night I wasn't targeting him, as I have owned him in past seasons and been burned by his injury track record. But when the bidding was coming in super low on him, I gave him a chance because the price tag mitigated the risk for me. I also knew the Grizzlies had basically only 2 good players, so I figured he'd be very productive stats wise. When Conley went down early in the season it meant Gasol was asked to do a ton for his team, which translated into excellent stat production. Especially for the price I paid ($21). But with the Grizzlies on a crazy losing streak (lost 16 of last 17) and them firing their coach, I started to get increasingly nervous about Gasol. The increased minutes he's playing made me nervous about injuries, but beyond that I worried that the Grizzlies record could lead to them trading Gasol or shutting him down for the season. A trade anywhere would have to hurt his value, and a shutdown obviously would be awful too. There's a chance he continues playing for the rest of the season, and maintains his current level of production. But I had a bad feeling that's not going to be the case, so I was looking to trade him when his value is as high as it's going to get.

With that backstory out of the way, let's examine this trade more in depth. I gave up Gasol who is a very solid player right now, but who carries some injury risk and also is a potential trade/shutdown candidate as well. I also gave up Holiday, who is also currently a very good player. Holiday is interesting, as he's been really good when the Brow is out injured, but takes a big hit usage wise when the Brow can play. His past 5 games or so he's been on fire since the Brow has been out, and if the Brow goes down at some future point with another big injury I could see him continuing his high levels of production. On the flipside, the Brow is set to return soon, so I view Jrue's current hot streak as just that. A hot streak.

So what do I receive? Let's start with Wiggins. Objectively, he's had a really disappointing fantasy season so far. His shooting has been awful and for a guy whose only real skill is scoring, that's a very big deal. I fully believe Tu put him in the trade as a Kyrie tax. So why was I willing to swallow that tax? A few reasons. First, Wiggins has shot better than this in all his past seasons. He's obviously on a cold streak now, so I think it's likely he will revert to his career mean which will make him at least a rotation player for my team. Just as I don't expect Jrue will stay this hot all season, I also don't expect Wiggins to stay this cold. Another reason I think this will happen, is that the Wolves just gave Wiggins a 5 year max deal over the summer. They have too much invested in him to reduce his role over the season. I expect he will continue to get minutes, and that his shooting will come back to his career averages. And honestly? My worst case scenario is that I cut or trade him, and replace him with better production off the waiver wire. I probably would have done Gasol/Jrue straight up for Kyrie. If Wiggins gets back on track, then that's just a bonus for me.

On that topic, the key of the trade for me was getting Kyrie. Similar to Wiggins, the Celtics have a lot of incentive to play Kyrie heavy minutes throughout the year. The Celtics are first in the East, and there's no way they don't make the playoffs, so there's no shutdown risk here. There's also no trade risk, since they just traded for Kyrie. Finally, he's going to be super motivated all year to show he can carry his own team without LeBron. Basically, I see Kyrie as the best player in this trade with the safest long term outlook for the season. If March/April rolls around and Gasol is out with an injury, or has been traded to a team where he has less Fantasy value I won't be surprised. Even if he doesn't, I still think it's the right move for me to flip him now for a safer statistical bet, and Kyrie fits that bill.

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Stick to the plan...

Post by C-Fan » 18 Dec 2017 09:27

Trade finally went through. Kyrie had an OK first game for me, Wiggins was awful, and of course I couldn't help but check to see how Gasol and Jrue did in their first game on Tu's team. They did amazing of course. Then again, I didn't do this trade for the short term outcomes, I did it for the long term season. I still won my matchup last week, so the trade didn't hurt me in any way that counts in the short term. I just need to be patient and see how things shake out in a month or two.

On that note, I'm still piling up injuries on my team. Don't want to complain though, as I know some other players have been even worse for their owners. Gobert missed something like 6 weeks, came back for a week, then went out for another month with a different injury. Yikes. On that note, we are now starting week 4 of Blake Griffin being out. He was given an 8 week time table, so the internal goal I set was to try and win 4 of the 8 weeks he's out to tread water. So far I've won the first 3 weeks, so I'm optimistic I'll hit my goal and stay in the playoffs even carrying his injury on my roster for another 5 weeks. Fingers crossed he sticks to his recovery timetable.

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Fantasy update

Post by C-Fan » 03 Jan 2018 08:44

Few quick thoughts on my Fantasy team/season so far.

:arrow: My win streak was snapped, against Tu Vu no less. He's the guy I did the big trade with. I only have 2 losses on the season, and they're both against him. I'm not worried at all though. I still think he sold Wiggins to me at his lowest value, I still think Kyrie will have a better April (fantasy playoffs) than Marc Gasol, and I still don't trust Jrue/Gasol to finish the season either due to injuries or shutdowns.
:arrow: I half expected to lose my matchup last week too, since I was in Georgia and offline for about 5 days. That meant I couldn't adjust lineups based on injury, or stream in players on the fly. I came back with 2 nights left in my matchup, streamed out players the last 2 nights (Rivers->Ersan->Marquese Chriss) which allowed me to eke out a win.
:arrow: Blake Griffin beat his recovery time table by like 2 weeks, and is back! He's only played 3 games so far since returning, but he's been great in all 3. Feeling very happy I didn't cut him when the injury occurred. Similarly, Aaron Gordon looks like he's finally back, and he's also been playing real well.
:arrow: Latest superstar to get injured is Harden. Out at least 2 weeks, maybe more. This is why I don't feel sorry for myself with all the injuries I've sustained. I don't think I've had much worse luck than any other owner, as it just looks like a lot of injuries in general this year.
:arrow: Going into the season, I expected Marquese Chriss to be a breakout candidate. I knew the Suns were bad and wanted to develop young players, and Chriss put up good blocks/steals/3s in limited minutes last season. I was therefore stoked to be able to draft him for $4 on draft night. Then he started the season out of shape, and was so awful I cut him. On the last night of last week's matchup I needed to pick somebody playing that night to eke out a win, so when I saw Chriss on the waiver again I rolled the dice. He's been so good since then, I've kept him on the roster. Over his past 5 games he's at like 12/8/2 with nearly 2 blocks and 1 steal per. It'd be nice if he did ultimately have the season I was hoping for, and I reacquired him at just the right time.
:arrow: Overall I really like my team. That said, I do feel like there's so many decent players on the waiver, I'd love to do a 2:1 trade with somebody to upgrade a position, and then fill my empty spot with somebody off the waiver. For whatever reason though, my league's owners don't appear to be into trades. 2.5 months into our season, only one trade has occurred. I'll keep floating offers though and see what I can do.

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All Star thoughts

Post by C-Fan » 24 Jan 2018 10:01

Crazy to think that we're almost at the All-Star break, which means the season is pretty much half over. Actually, it looks like most teams have played around 47 games already, so that's about 57% of the season over already.

All-star starters and reserves have been announced, so here's a few thoughts:

:arrow: The Pelicans have 2 starters (Davis and Cousins). Their record is 25-21, good for 6th in the West, but only a few games up on 9th and missing the playoffs. How can you have 2 players this good and still be basically a 500 team?
:arrow: Similarly, the Wizards got 2 All-stars in Wall and Beal. They are 26-21. See previous bullet.
:arrow: Remember when the Pacers traded Paul George this summer for Oladipo and Sabonis and we all laughed at how badly they got ripped off? Well Oladipo is an all star this season, while George isn't.
:arrow: Porzingis got selected for the first time, but it almost feels like he's slumping his way into the game. Remember when he started the season (first 10 games) averaging 30 points? Well he's missed a bunch of games since then with various injuries, and his scoring avg for the season is now down to 23. Something doesn't feel right with him.
:arrow: I like this new system of having the top vote getter in each conference choose teams playground style. That said, why wouldn't they televise the draft? That'd be such good viewing. Or at the very least show what order they picked players. Also begs the question why we vote by conference to begin with, instead of just picking the 24 best players.
:arrow: The fact that we're almost at all-star weekend means we're also almost at the trade deadline. I'm curious to see what deals happen around then. The Cavs seem to be struggling, so I wouldn't be surprised to see them make a move to bolster their defense. I'd also expect the Bulls try and move Mirotic or Portis. We'll see.

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Re: 2017-2018 NBA Season

Post by Asmus » 25 Jan 2018 00:10

I like your points.

I think The Latvian Gangbanger Aka The Real Unicorn Aka Kristapz PorsinGOD Aka Kristapzilla is just tired. It gotta be hard to enjoy the New York nightlife and be an NBA player. I would be the same way. I respect it.

Another thing is that this feels like a generation is out and a new one is ready to take over. LeBron is the only banana boat guy making it for the first time since 1982.

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Boogie down!

Post by C-Fan » 26 Jan 2018 22:48

Literally laughed out loud at the last line of your post Asmus. It definitely feels that way.

Big news tonight was that Boogie ruptured his achilles, and will miss the remainder of the season. This is bad for a bunch of reasons. He was having a career season. The Pelicans are at the bottom end of the West playoffs, so this may knock them out of the playoffs. He's in the final year of his contract year, so this may impact if they sign him to a max or not (it would have been a no brainer to do so before the injury). Also, Boogie has been in the league almost 8 years now, and never made the playoffs. So this extending his streak really sucks for him.

In our fantasy league, the guy who owned Boogie was already in last in our conference, so its not like it changes much for him. But now it basically guarantees he won't make the playoffs, so that kinda sucks for him.

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Conley out too

Post by C-Fan » 29 Jan 2018 10:42

Injuries have just been brutal this year in the NBA. I think they had the right idea by spacing out the schedule more this year and shortening preseason, but still. Lots of season ending injuries so far (Boogie, Conley, Lin, Hayward, Roberson) to say nothing of other players who have been injured for long stretches (Blake, Kawhi, CP3).

On a related note, I picked up Gallinari off the waiver wire. He's coming off something like 6 weeks missed due to injury, and of course he's going to be an injury risk going forward too. He'll also probably have to deal with restrictions like minutes limits and maybe sitting out back to backs for a while, but I also think he has some high upside so I'm willing to roll the dice. The big wildcard is the upcoming trade deadline. I wouldn't be surprised if the Clips trade Deandre Jordan, in which case Gallo's role will be affected by who they get back and if the Clips decide to tank the remainder of the season.

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Blake a Piston!

Post by C-Fan » 30 Jan 2018 08:35

Things are happening too fast for me to process. Blake got traded to the Pistons yesterday, and then today I learned that John Wall is out 6-8 weeks to get his knee scoped. I'm still reeling from the Boogie injury news, how am I supposed to process all this new info?

Fantasy wise, most people think Blake will produce similar stats in Detroit so that's good if that's true. The only other player I have that I think would be impacted is Gallo, but I have no idea how that'll shake out. I guess I'll wait and see.

In good NBA news for me, I have a trip in Vegas next week. That means I'll have access to channels I don't have in Denver like ESPN and TNT, so hopefully I can watch a few NBA games at the hotel. I think I've only watched like 2.5 games all season.

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Love is gone...

Post by C-Fan » 31 Jan 2018 09:24

Can't make this up. Now Kevin Love is out for 6-8 weeks with a broken hand.

In more fun news, James Harden has a 60 point triple double. That's the first one in NBA history!

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Little fantasy update

Post by C-Fan » 02 Feb 2018 12:33

A few developments in the NBA and my fantasy league made this feel like an important week in the course of my NBA fantasy season. In no particular order:
C-Fan wrote:
30 Jan 2018 08:35
Blake got traded to the Pistons yesterday,
The trade meant Blake missed one potential game, but given how many games he missed due to injury earlier in the season I didn't even sweat it. Encouragingly, he posted something like a 24/10/5 in his first game as a Piston, so I'm cautiously optimistic he'll hold his statistical value for the rest of the season. Provided he doesn't get injured again.
C-Fan wrote:
30 Jan 2018 08:35
today I learned that John Wall is out 6-8 weeks to get his knee scoped.
That was surprising news, but what was even more surprising to me was that his owner in my fantasy league cut him! Don't get me wrong, I can understand making the tactical decision to cut somebody when they're set to miss 1.5-2 months of the season. I had to do that with Blake earlier in the year. But right now I'm in 1st place in my league with a 13-2 record, so I can afford to carry an injured Wall for 2 months. Even if I lose the next 8 weeks of matchups, I'd probably still make the playoffs. And then? Well I'm betting that having a recovering-from-injury Wall for the fantasy playoffs is better than whoever I'd have had in that final roster spot otherwise. Basically I just made a bet that I can carry an empty injured roster spot for 6-8 weeks and still make the playoffs, and that once I'm there Wall will be back and help me win.

In sad Fantasy news, I finally dropped Tyreke Evans. He's a guy I added off the waiver wire early in the season, and then benefited from him having a career year as the 2nd best player on the Grizzlies all season. He had been one of my most reliable and best players all season. But given how bad the Grizz are and how good Evans has been, the Grizz have shut him down as they wait to trade him. So not only is he not playing for the next week or so, he'll likely be traded to a team where he'll play fewer minutes in a smaller role. I saw this coming, so I was trying to trade him over the past few weeks but with no success. So when I saw Wall on the waiver, I decided it was time to part ways with Evans. Ironically enough, a large part of what made me feel comfortable taking on Wall was that Evans' outstanding play all season padded my record to the point where I felt I could afford the risk.

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Trade Deadline is over!

Post by C-Fan » 09 Feb 2018 10:43

Pretty crazy trade deadline, mostly due to the Cavs. Gotta give them credit for recognizing how dysfunctional they had gotten, and trying to shake things up to keep LeBron happy so he'll stay another year. I'm still digesting the impact of all their moves, but overall I feel like Wade, Crowder and IT4 weren't giving them anything, so dumping those guys (plus a few more) for George Hill and Rodney Hood feels like it should improve them. I still don't know if I'd even favor them to get out of the East now, but I do think their prospects are better than they were a day ago.

The biggest loser I can think of at the deadline is probably Isaiah Thomas. He was an MVP candidate a year ago with the Celtics due a big payday. Then he got injured, the Celtics were scared to pay him the max and traded him to the Cavs, he only played 15 games with the Cavs due to injury, he didn't appear to get along with his Cavs teammates, the Cavs also weren't stoked on paying him the max, and now he's been traded to the Lakers. Who are pretty much exhibit A of a team not looking to take on long term salary as they hope to get PG13 or LeBron in the next couple years. So pretty much in a year Isaiah went from MVP candidate hoping for a max salary, to a guy who has been traded twice in a year and is now on a team that also probably won't offer him a big payday. So the question for him is: who pays him next year, and how much?
C-Fan wrote:
02 Feb 2018 12:33

In sad Fantasy news, I finally dropped Tyreke Evans. ... the Grizz have shut him down as they wait to trade him.
Looks like this may have been a mistake on my part. The Grizz did shut him down before the trade deadline, and were hoping to get a 1st round pick for him. Apparently the Wizards offered them 2 seconds and they turned that down. In any case, they didn't get any offers they liked so they decided to keep Evans and try to bring him back next year with the mid level exception. I think my analysis was correct, that if he got traded he'd lose value, so I can't kill myself over having traded him. It's also possible the Grizz shut him down or limit him down the stretch as they continue to tank the season. But I'd be lying if I said I expected him to stay with the Grizz, where he'll have the most statistical value. Sure enough, somebody picked him up off the waiver after I dropped him, so it's a moot point to me now. I think with Fantasy all you can do is make the play that seems like the best statistical bet, so hopefully in April when Wall is back and putting up good numbers and Evans is held out for tanking purposes, I'll look back at this and feel I made the right decision.

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Butler goes down!

Post by C-Fan » 26 Feb 2018 11:05

Man, what a depressing season for injuries. Butler went down with an MCL injury over the weekend. He hasn't been ruled out for the season like so many others, but still will miss most of the rest of the regular season. With the West playoff picture as tight as it is, there's not even a guarantee the Wolves make the playoffs without him.

In terms of Fantasy though, his season is done. He may make it back for the last couple games of the regular season (which are the Fantasy playoffs), but even assuming he does that means you're trying to get through 1-2 rounds of the fantasy playoffs before he's back. Yikes.

In other Fantasy news, I lost my matchup last week by 4 points. You could definitely argue that carrying Wall as injured dead weight cost me the matchup, but I'm still in good shape for the Fantasy playoffs and I think my strategy is sound. All reports say he's healing well, the Wiz are in the playoffs hunt, and I can totally see him coming back just in time for the Fantasy playoffs with the goal of getting back into shape and solidifying their playoff position. Given that Tyreke (the guy I dropped to roster Wall off the waiver) is injured now and is a likely shutdown candidate now that the trade deadline is over and the Grizz are out of the playoffs, I don't feel bad at all about making the move I did.

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Re: 2017-2018 NBA Season

Post by Asmus » 27 Feb 2018 00:34

And my fantasy season goes down with him :(

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Sorry Asmus

Post by C-Fan » 02 Mar 2018 07:39

That's a bummer, but at least you're not alone. Butler was your second most expensive player draft night at $37, behind Jokic and ahead of Beal. The guy who drafted Kawhi paid $54 and only got 9 games out of him, Cousins went for $46, Hayward was $34 and played zero games, Gobert was $46 and missed a big chunk of the season, etc.

Actually, looking back on the draft night results I feel really bad for the Cervezas team. Their top 4 picks in order: Kawhi, Wall, Gobert, Kristaps. Now THAT guy has shit luck.

On the subject of Butler going down and impact on Fantasy, the main beneficiary should be Wiggins. He's been the third wheel all season, so with Butler out I expect he'll get a big value boost. I actually got him in my Gasol for Kyrie trade earlier this year, but traded him off for Bazemore (lower ceiling, but more consistent, also primary option on his team). I don't regret that, since there was no way to know Butler would go out, and frankly as long as Butler plays Wiggins is going to be worse. The second beneficiary of Butler's injury should be KAT, who I also own, so I'm excited to see a boost there. Already in the 3 games since Butler went out, KAT has averaged 27/16/3/1/2. I don't expect that every night, but anything close to that would really help me in the playoffs.

In real NBA news, I have a work trip next week. Hopefully I can catch a game or two during that.

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Rekordy Polski
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Regular and Fantasy Seasons Done!

Post by C-Fan » 12 Apr 2018 09:09

So the regular season ended yesterday, which means the Fantasy season did too. In real world basketball, yesterday was pretty exciting because the Wolves and Nuggets played each other in the final game which determined which team would make the playoffs, and which would continue their streak of missing the playoffs. The game lived up to the hype as it went to OT, with the Nuggets losing. Kinda happy for the Wolves TBH, since their streak of missing the playoffs was the longest active streak at 14 years, while the Nuggs have only missed them for about 4 seasons? Anyway, kinda neat to have the final game of the season be so consequential and high stakes for both teams.

I'll do a proper post mortem on my fantasy season later probably. I always say that Fantasy seasons are determined 60% by your draft, 25% by your in-season moves, and 15% by injury luck. Looking back on my season, I definitely did shitty on draft night and that cost me. My injury luck was pretty bad, but that was the case for lots of people. I actually feel really great about my in-season moves, but ultimately my draft doomed me. I only drafted one sure shot blue chip player (KAT), and everybody I thought would have breakout seasons (Aaron Gordon, Myles Turner, Marquese Chriss, Willy HG) all sucked badly. I also didn't time the playoffs well. I thought the playoffs would be the final two weeks of the season, but it turns out they were the final 4 weeks of the season broken out into 2 two week periods. That cost me when I was calculating how long I could roster injured players like Wall, who did indeed come back in the final week of the season and put up good numbers, but at that point had cost me in the semi finals. Long story short, I didn't make the Finals in my league and finished 3rd on the season. Kinda disappointing, but I had fun with it. Next year I'll have to approach the draft very differently. Less gambling on potential, be better about spending all my money, and maybe invest a lot more in blue chippers to anchor the team.

Now that the regular season is over, playoff matchups are set. I'll go into more detail later hopefully, but here are the matchups with my short predictions.

WEST:
Rockets vs Wolves. Predict Rockets in 5.
Thunder-Jazz. Jazz in 5
Blazer Pelicans. Blazers in 7
Warriors-Spurs. Warriors in 5 if no Kawhi, in 6 if Kawhi is playing.

EAST:
Toronto over Washington in 5
Indiana over Cleveland in 7 (!)
Philly over Miami in 6
Boston over Milwaukee in 6

We'll see! Hopefully I can catch some games on TV.

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