2013 NBA Playoffs

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2013 NBA Playoffs

Post by C-Fan » 03 May 2013 13:46

These have been going for a while, but I thought I'd start a topic anyway.

Some thoughts:

1. The Heat and the Spurs swept their first round series, and are awaiting opponents who are coming off series that are going 6-7 games each. If the Heat and Spurs aren't in their Conference Finals, I'll be shocked.

2. Whoever faces the Heat in the second round (Bulls or Nets) will either get swept, or lose in 5. Pencil the Heat in the Finals. There's no way they don't make it, barring a freak injury.

3. I'm predicting a Pacers-Knicks 2nd round series, and also predicting the Pacers win it. I dont see the Pacers beating the Heat though.

4. Call me insane, but I actually think the Grizzlies will make the Finals. Yes, they're in a Game 6 in the first round. Yes, they'll likely face the Spurs in the West Finals. But I think they match up great with everybody they could face in the West. And if they face the Heat in the Finals...wow that'd be an intriguing matchup. The Heat's only real weakness is their big men...which is also the great strength of the Grizz. Also throw in the stellar defenders on the Grizz, and that would be a great series.

5. Steph Curry of the Warriors is BALLING out of his mind. If you can catch a game with him, do it.

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Re: 2013 NBA Playoffs

Post by brianbear » 05 May 2013 17:22

#5. human torch! + Bogut and Green playin some dirty (very physical) post, who woulda thought the warriors would have some bruisers in the playoffs!
too many rookies to make it past the spurs most likely, but we are good at home and who knows, if curry can go off in an early road game... anything could happen.

also, agree with the heat, i would be surprised if they didn't simply win it all.
i do believe the spurs will make it in the west, but it could be a free for all in the west.
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Re: 2013 NBA Playoffs

Post by brianbear » 06 May 2013 19:12

wow at the bulls!
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Re: 2013 NBA Playoffs

Post by C-Fan » 07 May 2013 09:24

Epic Game 1 between Spurs and Warriors last night. I tuned in at the start of the 3rd Quarter hoping to see Steph Curry go nuts, and he didn't disappoint. But the crafty Spurs used an 18-2 run to force OT, and then 2OT, and then Manu hit the game winning 3 with 1.2 seconds left...tough loss for the Warriors. I think the Spurs win it in 6, but man I'd love an upset.

For those that didn't hear, Lebron won MVP this year. That makes 4 MVPs in a 5 year span, which is insane. I think he's got a few more in him too, which would put him in rarefied air.

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Re: 2013 NBA Playoffs

Post by C-Fan » 07 May 2013 09:25

Epic Game 1 between Spurs and Warriors last night. I tuned in at the start of the 3rd Quarter hoping to see Steph Curry go nuts, and he didn't disappoint. But the crafty Spurs used an 18-2 run to force OT, and then 2OT, and then Manu hit the game winning 3 with 1.2 seconds left...tough loss for the Warriors. I think the Spurs win it in 6, but man I'd love an upset.

For those that didn't hear, Lebron won MVP this year. That makes 4 MVPs in a 5 year span, which is insane. I think he's got a few more in him too, which would put him in rarefied air.

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Re: 2013 NBA Playoffs

Post by Asmus » 07 May 2013 10:51

Just wanted to say that I always enjoy reading these Ken. You have great insights and because of the time zones I don't get to watch as much as I would like.

The Warriors / Spurs game was one of the best games I have watched in a long time. And that Curry kid is crazy. Felt sorry for the youngins.

When will Derrick Rose be back?

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Re: 2013 NBA Playoffs

Post by C-Fan » 07 May 2013 12:29

I saw somewhere that Rose said he is for sure not coming back in this season's playoffs. Given how well the Bulls have played without him, you'd have to think that getting him back at even 80% capacity would push them into contending status. I know the Bulls stole game 1, but anybody who thinks the Heat aren't making the Finals is just deluded.

It's kinda weird...if the Bulls had known that Rose would sit out the whole year and playoffs, their best strategy would have been to tank the season as hard as possible, try and get somebody decent in the draft, and then try and win it all the following year (The Spurs did this in 1996. David Robinson got hurt, they tanked the season, and then they got Duncan as the #1 pick the following year and rode him to titles in 99, 03,05 and 07). I guess the Bulls coach figured that if he could get them to the playoffs, there was a chance Rose would play again and they could make a run. That didn't quite happen, but I have to say it was a commendable effort.

On a related note, if I were starting an NBA team and had my pick of any current coaches for my team, I think I'd pick in the following order:

1. Poppovich. I hate the Spurs, but this guy knows how to coach. I've seen him go big, go small, he runs good plays out of timeouts, he creates systems that maximize the strengths of players...the guy is for real.
2. Thibodeau. Not the best offensive mind out there, but when you have the best defense in the NBA, you can do really well.
3. Frank Vogel (Pacers)/Doc Rivers (celtics). Both these guys have a deep understanding of defense, and they have shown they can adjust an offense creatively when need be.

At the bottom of my list would likely be Vinnie DelNegro of the Clippers.

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Re: 2013 NBA Playoffs

Post by brianbear » 18 May 2013 07:40

i agree ken, pop beat the warriors pretty good.
great run though dubs!

nice call on the grizzlies, they look strong. But I fear for some major trouble against the floppiest team in the nba.
if they can stay out of foul trouble, it's gonna be a great series that they can win!
I for sure agree that memphis would be the toughest matchup for the heat.
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Re: 2013 NBA Playoffs

Post by C-Fan » 21 May 2013 10:48

Game 2 of the West finals is tonight. I watched Game 1, where the Spurs just dominated the hell out of the Grizz. It was disappointing, but I don't think it's the end of the world either. It's a 7 game series, and if the Spurs lose tonight the Grizz will have stolen homecourt advantage in the series. Getting a split on the road is what matters, and it doesn't matter if your loss was close or a blowout...it's the result that counts.

I think the 2 things that killed the Grizz in game 1 were:

1. Z-Bo didn't show up offensively. Just overall the Grizz weren't hitting shots...and it wasn't always because of good Spurs defense. They were just off.
2. The Spurs went insane from three point land. This was partially due to bad defense on the part of the Grizz, but it was also an abnormally hot shooting night for the Spurs (they set a playoff franchise record for 3s).

Assuming a slight reversion to the mean for both of these factors, and we should have a better game 2. But yeah, the Grizz needs to close out on 3s a lot better regardless.

At this stage a lot of people are predicting the Spurs come out of the West and the Heat come out of the East. I think it's pretty safe money to bet on the Heat, but I'm really not prepared to call the West based on just one game that had abnormally hot and cold streaks from each team.

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Re: 2013 NBA Playoffs

Post by C-Fan » 03 Jun 2013 08:47

:arrow: The Spurs swept their way into the Finals. I gotta say, this surprised me. I really thought this would be a tough series between the Grizz and the Spurs, and that it'd go 6 or 7 games with either team having a chance to win it. I'm still kinda in shock.

:arrow: Tim Duncan and Coach Poppovich are going to the Finals together for the 5th time. I don't think there's every been a time in NBA history when a player and coach have been to the Finals together 14 years apart. That alone is pretty notable. If the Spurs win it and Duncan is the best player, that'd also be pretty notable...only Kareem can claim to have done something like that. I ain't gonna lie; I hate the Spurs, but I have to respect Duncan and Popp. Well deserved Hall of Famers, and both are still plenty dangerous.

:arrow: Game 7 of Heat-Pacers is tonight. I don't really have a rooting interest for either team, so much as I want the Spurs to lose in the Finals. So really, I should be rooting for the team that I think would give the Spurs the most trouble in the finals. And at this point, I think that might be the Pacers. Through the first two rounds of the playoffs, I really didn't think anybody could beat the Heat in the East. But the Pacers have turned my thinking around. Paul George and Hibbert have really stepped up (West has been great, but I expected that), and Vogel has made some excellent adjustments as well. I'm going to go to a sports bar tonight to watch this, cause it could very well be the best game of the playoffs.

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Re: 2013 NBA Playoffs

Post by C-Fan » 06 Jun 2013 13:12

Game 1 of the Finals is tonight. A few thoughts:

:arrow: I hate the Spurs, but regardless who wins the series, I'll have to concede it's a worthy champ. Both the Heat and the Spurs have played dominant, excellent basketball all year, and whoever wins it will be a deserving champion. And it kills me to say that about the Spurs.

:arrow: Wade and Bosh looked pretty awful for the second half of the series against the Pacers. Whether that's age and injury, or a testament to the strength of Indiana's defense, I'm not sure. The Spurs are no slouches defensively, but they aren't as solid as Indiana. That said, Indiana was pretty stagnant offensively, while the Spurs are much more dangerous on that end. So will the Heat offense do a lot better against the Spurs? Will the Heat defense adjust to the more dangerous Spurs attack?

:arrow: I think this series will hinge on Chris Bosh, and more specifically his 18 foot jump shot. He was pretty cold in the last series, but if he finds his mid-range game again, I think the Spurs are in trouble. When Bosh is hitting midrange and the Heat have a single effective 3 point shooter, the defense has to stretch to respect it, which leaves Wade and James free to attack the basket, where they are close to unstoppable. In the Pacers series the Heat's 3 pt specialists were cold and Bosh was missing, and we saw how it messed up their offensive spacing.

:arrow: The biggest question for me with the Spurs is: can Kawhi Leonard defend LeBron? Apparently this has only happened once, and since Kawhi is so young, it's hard to know the answer. All I know is that if the Spurs can credibly defend LeBron with single coverage, that'd be a huge victory since they wouldn't have to warp the rest of their defense to contain him.

:arrow: Home court advantage could be huge. It was smart of the Heat to lock it up through the playoffs...and also kind of unfair. When the Eastern conference is so much weaker than the west (and since you get to play more games against teams in your conference) its a big advantage that the few strong teams in the East can amass such solid regular season records, while the strong teams in the West kind of cancel each other out. But such are the ground rules, and Miami was smart to make a point of securing the best record in the NBA.

:arrow: I really can't predict a winner confidently before Game 1. The two teams haven't really played each other at full strength in the last 2 years (the Heat have had the big 3 for 3 years, but only figured out their offensive system in the last 1.5-2 years), so there's no meaningful record to examine. There's also the x-factor of Wade/Bosh's health. But since the Heat have home court advantage (and LeBron), I'd give them a slight edge. Regardless, this should be fun to watch.

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Re: 2013 NBA Playoffs

Post by C-Fan » 07 Jun 2013 07:56

Game 1 was pretty amazing. Some quick takeaways:

:arrow: For most of the game, neither team was ahead by more than 1 or 2 possesions. Pretty riveting, and a lot easier on the eyes than the Eastern Finals were.

:arrow: Birdman didn't have an NBA contract when the season began. Since the Heat picked him up, he's been one of their best players outside the Big 3. He knows his role, and he sticks to it, and he does it well. Great pickup for the Heat.

:arrow: Tony Parker's shot to clinch the game was insane. I thought he had lost it a couple times, so when he got the shot off, I couldn't believe it. Then when they video reviewed it, and it left his fingers at the LAST possible second...wow. One of the best shots I've ever seen in NBA Finals history.

:arrow: I never liked the Finals format of 2-3-2. I always thought it gave a slight advantage to the team missing home court advantage. So for me, the Spurs stealing game 1 is pretty huge.

:arrow: LeBron's triple double was his third in an NBA finals. The career record for triple doubles in the Finals is 8 (Magic!), and now LeBron is in 2nd place with 3. There are a bunch of people on the list with 2 (Bird, Frazier, Cousy) but no Jordan.

:arrow: It's too early in the series to read too much into the Game 1 result, especially given how close a game it was. All I know is that it was super entertaining, good basketball, and I'm hopeful the rest of the Finals will be equally entertaining.

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Re: 2013 NBA Playoffs

Post by Max Power » 07 Jun 2013 18:41

If the heat lose game two they are in big trouble! Tons of pressure on them. Lebron wasn't attacking enough in game one. It's hard to blame the guy with a triple double but i think he could have done more. I'm routing for San Antonio, only cause i hate the heat and the spurs don't get any respect. Parker is in the top three point guards in the league and no one acknowledges it.

I didn't realize you were even taking NBA playoffs here. I totally would have chimed in before. It's too late to give my opinion on the old stuff but it's been a great playoff season.

Not 2, not 3, not nothing Lebron!
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Re: 2013 NBA Playoffs

Post by C-Fan » 10 Jun 2013 08:52

Game 2 was entertaining for the first couple quarters...I was hoping the entire series would be a dogfight one possession back and forth affair. Then Miami blew it open in the third.

While Miami should feel good about the win, they also shouldn't read too much into it. The Spurs came to Miami and got a split, stealing home court advantage. They still have the advantage. The Spurs big 3 played pretty badly in Game 2, but really Miami's big 3 weren't great either. I still feel like Wade and Bosh have yet to show up, and if they don't eventually, it'll cost Miami the title.

Personally hoping this series goes 6 or 7 deep.

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Re: 2013 NBA Playoffs

Post by C-Fan » 14 Jun 2013 06:49

C-Fan wrote: I still feel like Wade and Bosh have yet to show up, and if they don't eventually, it'll cost Miami the title.
That was definitely still the case in Game 3, which made me worry for the series. Thankfully, they showed up in Game 4.
C-Fan wrote:Personally hoping this series goes 6 or 7 deep.
Well, now at least we're guaranteed 6 games. Really hoping it goes 7.

Game 3 was weird. Heat defense continued to be horrid, which wasn't helped by 2 Spurs role players catching fire and setting a Finals record for 3 pointers (Gary Neal and Danny Green scored 51 together!). LeBron also refused to go in the post, and had all sorts of bizarre posessions where he'd dribble at the 3 point line, all the other Heat would stand around, and then finally he'd jack up a 3. Hard to watch.

Game 4 was what I expected the Finals would look like...good motion offense from the Spurs, and the Big 3 in Miami doing most of the damage for the Heat.

My prediction for the next few games? I doubt Wade plays as well as he did in Game 4. That said, as long as Lebron plays well, he only really needs one of the other guys to show up offensively, provided the Heat team defense does its job. Frankly, I wouldn't be surprised to see either team win the series. This weird exchange of blowouts over Games 2 and 3 has made it a hard read. If I had to be though, I'd give the edge to the Heat, and in 7 games.

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Re: 2013 NBA Playoffs

Post by C-Fan » 18 Jun 2013 08:02

C-Fan wrote:My prediction for the next few games? I doubt Wade plays as well as he did in Game 4. That said, as long as Lebron plays well, he only really needs one of the other guys to show up offensively, provided the Heat team defense does its job.
Wade actually did better than I expected, but the Heat team defense is still struggling against the Spurs move-the-ball offense. Game 6 is tonight, and I think it's gonna come down to 3 things:

1. Can Danny Green keep shooting this way? Or on the flip of that, can the Heat figure out how to cover the 3P line at all?
2. Wade/Manu. Who will show up? If either has a monster game, that probably swings Game 6.
3. Can LeBron go beast mode? If he can throw down a monster triple double (like a 40/12/12), then he might be able to win it by himself.

I don't know the answers to any of these questions, but I'm definitely excited to watch the game to find out the answers.
C-Fan wrote:
Frankly, I wouldn't be surprised to see either team win the series. If I had to though, I'd give the edge to the Heat, and in 7 games.
I still stand by this. I really wouldn't be surprised if either team won, and I really do hope/expect this will go 7 games.

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Re: 2013 NBA Playoffs

Post by C-Fan » 18 Jun 2013 20:26

Wow. Classic, classic Game 6. One for the ages.

Got the answers to my questions:
C-Fan wrote: 1. Can Danny Green keep shooting this way?
Guess not, though its also not like he shot 1-10 or something horrible. But the 3p shot wasn't there for the Spurs, and it cost them.
C-Fan wrote:2. Wade/Manu. Who will show up? If either has a monster game, that probably swings Game 6.
Haven't looked at the stats, but it felt like a wash. Instead, I'd argue that Bosh's defense and Ray Allen's offense in the end is what saved the Heat. Personally, I feel like LeBron choked in the end of the game, and got bailed out by his teammates. That's weird to say, since he did well in the 4th quarter and finished with a triple double, but I still feel like he got tight at the end of the 4th and OT. If he has a solid game 7 though, all is forgiven.
C-Fan wrote:
3. Can LeBron go beast mode? If he can throw down a monster triple double (like a 40/12/12), then he might be able to win it by himself.
Well, he finished with a 32-10-11 or something like that. I wouldn't say he won it by himself by any means, but he definitely showed up.

And Duncan had a 30-17? How is he still so good?

Game 7 can't come soon enough. Wow.

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Re: 2013 NBA Playoffs

Post by C-Fan » 21 Jun 2013 14:14

Incredible finals. So many good moments. Danny Green's historic 3P onslaught through the first 5 games. LBJs block on Splitter. This pass: Image

Just wow. What a series. I'll write more later summing up my thoughts on how I think the outcome affects various people's legacies. But yeah, this was one of the best Finals I've seen.

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Re: 2013 NBA Playoffs

Post by C-Fan » 10 Jul 2013 09:42

C-Fan wrote: I'll write more later summing up my thoughts on how I think the outcome affects various people's legacies.
Don't think I'll be able to do this to the level I'd like, but here's the quick and dirty version.

The 2013 Finals could have easily gone either way. Game 6 was close throughout, and was only settled in a historic overtime. Game 7 was pretty close too. A couple bounces here or there could have swung any number of games (Parker's crazy Game 1 shot, Ray's insane 3P to force OT in Game 6, Duncan's missed tap over Battier at the end of Game 7). Really, the series was a toss up. But in this reality at least, the Spurs lost and the Heat won. So here's my quick and dirty as to how it affects various player's legacies

:arrow: LeBron. Had he lost, that would have made him 1 for 4 in Finals series, and 1 for 3 since coming to Miami. That'd be enough for haters to come out of the woodwork. Instead, he's now 2 for 3 in the Finals in Miami, which more than vindicates his Decision to leave Cleveland. He now also has 2 finals MVPs, and can say he's won back to back (surprisingly rare). He's also set himself up for a threepeat.

:arrow: Duncan. That missed tap in Game 7 will haunt him. Had the Spurs won, Duncan would have 5 rings, tying him with Magic and Kobe. He'd lock up the title of best player of his generation with that. I don't think this series will change serious basketball fans' opinion of him...if anything they probably appreciate him even more. But yeah, that 5th ring, especially this late in his career, would have meant a lot to his legacy. I could have seen him and Pop retiring after it had they won.

:arrow: Ginobili. He had a bad Finals, which wasn't entirely his fault. If Parker hadn't gotten injured, Manu wouldn't have had to have done so much. But yeah, you could argue he helped the Spurs win three championships... and lose 2 others (2006 Mavs series, and this one). The Spurs resigned him for 2 years and $14M, which I think is high. Had the Spurs won, that would have made Ginobili a 4 time champ and a gold medalist, which would make him a sure fire HOF lock. He'll still probably get in, but a 4th ring would have made it guaranteed.

:arrow: Ray Allen. Ray now has one more ring than KG, Pierce, and Rondo. That alone justifies his jumping ship early from the Celtics. He also did his part to get the ring, by hitting one of the greatest shots in NBA Finals history.

:arrow: Danny Green. He slumped in the last 2 games of the series, but his shooting through the first five games was insane and historic. If the Spurs had won game 6, there's a chance Green gets Finals MVP. Which would have been crazy, but maybe justified. Instead, the Spurs lose and people remember the last two games, and Green likely becomes a historic footnote.

:arrow: Bosh. He gets a lot of unjustified criticism, and he does a lot of weird things. It's strange the Heat won Game 7 without him scoring, but hey, if not for his rebounding in Game 6 the Heat lose the title. Say what you want about him, but without him the Heat don't win this year or last year. Instead, he now has two rings.

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