https://twitter.com/treykerby/status/56 ... 40?lang=en
Big news in my Fantasy league: we have our first trade of the season! Unsurprisingly, I was involved in it. For the past month or so I've been actively shopping Marc Gasol in trade offers, and this week somebody finally bit. Tu Vu sent me a counter trade offer, which I eventually accepted. Gory breakdown to follow, but here's the actual transaction:
I traded:
Marc Gasol
Jrue Holiday
and I received:
Kyrie Irving
Andrew Wiggins
So first, some backstory on why I was shopping Gasol. On draft night I wasn't targeting him, as I have owned him in past seasons and been burned by his injury track record. But when the bidding was coming in super low on him, I gave him a chance because the price tag mitigated the risk for me. I also knew the Grizzlies had basically only 2 good players, so I figured he'd be very productive stats wise. When Conley went down early in the season it meant Gasol was asked to do a ton for his team, which translated into excellent stat production. Especially for the price I paid ($21). But with the Grizzlies on a crazy losing streak (lost 16 of last 17) and them firing their coach, I started to get increasingly nervous about Gasol. The increased minutes he's playing made me nervous about injuries, but beyond that I worried that the Grizzlies record could lead to them trading Gasol or shutting him down for the season. A trade anywhere would have to hurt his value, and a shutdown obviously would be awful too. There's a chance he continues playing for the rest of the season, and maintains his current level of production. But I had a bad feeling that's not going to be the case, so I was looking to trade him when his value is as high as it's going to get.
With that backstory out of the way, let's examine this trade more in depth. I gave up Gasol who is a very solid player right now, but who carries some injury risk and also is a potential trade/shutdown candidate as well. I also gave up Holiday, who is also currently a very good player. Holiday is interesting, as he's been really good when the Brow is out injured, but takes a big hit usage wise when the Brow can play. His past 5 games or so he's been on fire since the Brow has been out, and if the Brow goes down at some future point with another big injury I could see him continuing his high levels of production. On the flipside, the Brow is set to return soon, so I view Jrue's current hot streak as just that. A hot streak.
So what do I receive? Let's start with Wiggins. Objectively, he's had a really disappointing fantasy season so far. His shooting has been awful and for a guy whose only real skill is scoring, that's a very big deal. I fully believe Tu put him in the trade as a Kyrie tax. So why was I willing to swallow that tax? A few reasons. First, Wiggins has shot better than this in all his past seasons. He's obviously on a cold streak now, so I think it's likely he will revert to his career mean which will make him at least a rotation player for my team. Just as I don't expect Jrue will stay this hot all season, I also don't expect Wiggins to stay this cold. Another reason I think this will happen, is that the Wolves just gave Wiggins a 5 year max deal over the summer. They have too much invested in him to reduce his role over the season. I expect he will continue to get minutes, and that his shooting will come back to his career averages. And honestly? My worst case scenario is that I cut or trade him, and replace him with better production off the waiver wire. I probably would have done Gasol/Jrue straight up for Kyrie. If Wiggins gets back on track, then that's just a bonus for me.
On that topic, the key of the trade for me was getting Kyrie. Similar to Wiggins, the Celtics have a lot of incentive to play Kyrie heavy minutes throughout the year. The Celtics are first in the East, and there's no way they don't make the playoffs, so there's no shutdown risk here. There's also no trade risk, since they just traded for Kyrie. Finally, he's going to be super motivated all year to show he can carry his own team without LeBron. Basically, I see Kyrie as the best player in this trade with the safest long term outlook for the season. If March/April rolls around and Gasol is out with an injury, or has been traded to a team where he has less Fantasy value I won't be surprised. Even if he doesn't, I still think it's the right move for me to flip him now for a safer statistical bet, and Kyrie fits that bill.