Dan talks to himself about the NBA playoff's

[BainbridgeShred]

My last year picks were pretty accurate (Except for having Boston not getting out of the first round, which they almost didn't btw) so here I am again. Enjoy Ken.

Cleavland
V
Detriot

Winner: Cleavland in five. The Billups/AI trade was nonsense. Should've traded anyone else besides Chauncey he was the glue of the entire team. Expect the Pistons to win 1 though.


Boston
V
Chicago

Winner: Boston. Fuck them, but Boston.


Orlando
V
Philadelphia

Winner: Philadelphia. I'm not sure the Jameer for Rafer swap was a good one. I like Rafer a lot but as a true PG I prefer Jameer. Expect the Magic's three point shooting to fall flat as the athletic Sixer's guard the perimeter and get out into transistion a lot. Magic will be out of their game vs these young studs.


Atlanta
V
Miami

Winner: I'm going to say Atlanta. I feel really shakey on this one (Mainly because Wade) but I really like Atlanta. My old friend Marvin Williams has actually been playing well this season too.




LA
v
Utah

Winner: Like you gotta ask. FEARTHEMAMBA


Denver
v
New Orleans

Winner: New Orleans. Same basic squad from last year when they went deep, with the addition of James Posey. A lot of mental toughness on this team. Hopefully whatever their coaches name is doesn't screw it up I hate that guy and so do all his players. Expect a big series from Paul. This one's going the maximum number of games.

San Antonio
v
Dallas

Winner: You know... I really like Dallas. But fuck the fucking fuck out of betting against the Spurs. I've been down that road too many times. This one will go the max number of games too.


Portland
v
Houston

Winner: This might be the toughest one to decide. Being that I am now a Trail Blazer's fan (Via Kansas City) I have watched a lot of their games this sure, and these guys are DOPE. Seriously go look up their roster. Every single one balls. Prezbilya is definitely one my favorite players. So is Alderidge (And not only because he slapped Kevin Garnett on the back of his shiney bald head). In fact, if I had to name my top 50 NBA players, nearly all of Portland's roster would be on it. These guys are amazing and watching them play is second only to the Lakers (Who, btw, they have dominated this year).

On the other hand, Houston is mad deep as well. But I think Yao is just a tiiiiiny bit overrated and around him is a lot of mediocrity. I'm going with the new team of the Northwest (Managing my love for both LA and Portland is gonna be tough the next 5 years) and saying Trail Blazer's.




Final's picks you ask? I got Cleavland vs LA like everybody else. I'm 99% sure Cleavland will be there, but the western conference is still just too stacked for me to say that LA will make it there unabated. If these two teams do meet though I have LA. The Lakers have a plethora of defenders to put against Lebron, and oh yeah they have KOBE FUCKING BRYANT BITCHES

[Rieferman]

well done, I'm with you on much of this.

The Billups/AI trade was nonsense. Should've traded anyone else besides Chauncey he was the glue of the entire team.

you're sooooooo right on this. I mean, c'mon, what the eff were they thinking with that trade? Look what it did for Denver???? Dumars is usually smarter than that. He got desperate I guess.

---
I also agree with the Philly upset pick.

I'm not sure the Jameer for Rafer swap was a good one

correct me if I'm wrong... but they picked up Rafer for some other players, but kept Nelson.. he's just injured (that's also why he didn't play in all star game.. pg for cleveland played instead.. morris?).

btw, the original skip to my lou stuff by rafer is awesome

----
I like Atlanta too... but if Jermaine Oneal is even decent, wade can carry them through that series. either way, that'll be a fun series to watch i think.

----

FEARTHEMAMBA

ha ha, totally

---
I've got n'orleans as well. on the strength of paul

Expect a big series from Paul.

i saw him play live once last season (against your fave celts).. in person, it's so obvious how much of the game he commands. he can get anywhere he wants whenever he wants. really a pleasure to watch

---
I got blazers too. They play right. Roy is just a dream player for a purist

[C-Fan]

Enjoy Ken.

Sweeeeeeet.

Cleavland
V
Detriot

Winner: Cleavland in five. The Billups/AI trade was nonsense. Should've traded anyone else besides Chauncey he was the glue of the entire team. Expect the Pistons to win 1 though.

1. I agree that Cleveland will win the series.
2. I'm actually expecting a sweep, but yeah, I don't see this series going past 5 games in any scenario.
3. Billups for AI wasn't a bad gamble really. Don't get me wrong: the trade has worked out much better for the Nuggets than the Pistons THIS season. But from the Pistons standpoint, they weren't going to beat Cleveland or Boston this year with the roster they had, so they gambled by trading Chauncey for AI. Best case scenario, they win as many games as they would have with Chauncey. Worst case scenario, AI doesn't work out, and they dump him and Sheed (who both have contracts that expire next year) which leaves them in fantastic financial shape for the free agent market of 2010, when LeBron/Wade/Bosh are all on the market. I think Dumars traded Chauncey for AI with an eye towards the future, not the present.

Player to watch: It'd be cool to see LeBron get a couple triple doubles and ridiculous lines in this series.

Boston
V
Chicago

Winner: Boston. Fuck them, but Boston.

1. Does KG's injury change your perception at all? If he doesn't play at all in the playoffs, could you see the Bulls with the upset?
2. I think the Celts have too much experience, and the Bulls too little, for there to be an upset. A couple days ago the Bulls had to beat Toronto to improve their playoff seeding, and they couldn't. Toronto sucks. The Celts are hobbled now, but I've seen the Bulls throw away a lot of games.
3. All that said, I wouldn't be surprised if this series goes to 6 or 7 games.

Player to watch: I'm excited to see Rose's first playoff appearance. It'll be interesting to see him play against Marbury, since I think Rose's game looks a lot like Marbury's did when he came into the league as a Timberwolf.

Orlando
V
Philadelphia

Winner: Philadelphia. I'm not sure the Jameer for Rafer swap was a good one. I like Rafer a lot but as a true PG I prefer Jameer. Expect the Magic's three point shooting to fall flat as the athletic Sixer's guard the perimeter and get out into transistion a lot. Magic will be out of their game vs these young studs.

1. As Bob pointed out, there was no Rafer for Jameer swap. Jameer had a season-ending injury, and they somehow landed Rafer as a replacement (which was a great move by management). Rafer is a better passer than Jameer, but Jameer is a better shooter.
2. The real concern I'd have if I were Orlando, is injuries. Rashard and Hedo got banged up towards the end of the season, and though they'll play, who knows how close to full strength they are. Then again, Thad Young could be the key for the sixers, and he also just came off the injured list...
3. I have Orlando taking the series.

Atlanta
V
Miami

Winner: I'm going to say Atlanta. I feel really shakey on this one (Mainly because Wade) but I really like Atlanta. .

1. Yeah, this is a tough series to call. I wouldn't bet money either way.
2. That said, all Atlanta really needs to do is guard Wade somehow. Box and one? Double team him throughout? I just don't see enough talent around Wade for the rest of the Heat to win games without him.

Player to watch: provided the Hawks can't shut him down somehow, Wade. Otherwise, I'm excited to see Beasley.

LA
v
Utah

Winner: Like you gotta ask.

1. Even the coach of the Jazz has thrown in the towel. That's not a good sign.
2. Lakers in 5.

Player to watch: I think it'll be interesting to watch Kobe, and see how LITTLE he has to do in this series. That's what's of interest to me. If you actually want to see a player put forth effort in this series, that'd be Deron Williams. He'll probably abuse the hell out of Fisher/Walton, but it won't be enough.

Denver
v
New Orleans

Winner: New Orleans. Same basic squad from last year when they went deep, with the addition of James Posey.

1. This should be one of the most fun series to watch in the first round.
2. Denver has homecourt advantage in this series, which I think will make a difference.
3. Paul will probably win a couple games by himself. That said, I think Denver matches up really well against the Bugs. Paul is better than Billups, but Billups is big, so he should be better defensively against Paul than most PGs. Plus, Billups is no slouch offensively either. In terms of frontlines, I give Denver the advantage: Nene/Birdman/K-Mart versus... Tyson Chandler? Then you get to Carmelo. Nobody matches up on the Bugs side.
4. Denver over NO in 6 games.

Player to watch: Paul is electric. He's a joy to watch.

San Antonio
v
Dallas

Winner: You know... I really like Dallas. But fuck the fucking fuck out of betting against the Spurs. I've been down that road too many times.

1. Well said.
2. While I'm tempted to agree with you, I like Dallas' chances. Spurs don't have Manu, and Duncan has been playing hurt for a while.
3. Mavs in 6 or 7. Should be a good series.

Player to watch: Watch Duncan: if he looks healthy, Spurs have a chance. If not, no way. For pure entertainment, Jason Terry can really heat up in a hurry.

Portland
v
Houston

Winner: This might be the toughest one to decide.

1. Agreed.
2. I think the Blazers have more talent, and they also have a guy who can take the last shot in Roy (actually, Outlaw is great in 4th quarters too). The rockets really don't have a guy who can take the last shot.
3. I'd bet on the Blazers winning it. They have homecourt, talent, and are young and healthy.

Player to watch: For excitement, any of the Blazer's young guys: Aldridge, Rudy, Bayless and Roy are all fast and athletic. For basketball purists, watch Battier. He's never out of position. NEVER. And he almost always does the right thing. It's cool, if not kinda spooky.

Final's picks you ask? I got Cleavland vs LA like everybody else. I'm 99% sure Cleavland will be there, but the western conference is still just too stacked for me to say that LA will make it there unabated.

1. Interesting. Most analysts I've read have said the Lakers will cruise out of the West, while the East is more up in the air.
2. Whatever the case, I would also be surprised if the finals are anybody other than Lakers and Cavs.
3. I think the outcome may ride a bit on who is more tired/beat up by the time they make it to the finals.

Player to watch: if the finals is Cavs vs. Lakers, they might as well make it a one-on-one game between Kobe and LeBron. Given that LeBron will likely win MVP this season, expect Kobe to have even MORE motivation to win, which is a scary thought.

[BainbridgeShred]

3. Billups for AI wasn't a bad gamble really. Don't get me wrong: the trade has worked out much better for the Nuggets than the Pistons THIS season. But from the Pistons standpoint, they weren't going to beat Cleveland or Boston this year with the roster they had, so they gambled by trading Chauncey for AI.

I understand that a trade had to be made; what I was trying to say was that they should've given away anyone besides the guy who made the team run for the last however many years. Sheed had pretty high trade value at the beggining of the year, and Tayshaun too coming off of the Olympics. These guys are a lot like CDO's now, no one knows where the fuck to price them at.

1. Does KG's injury change your perception at all? If he doesn't play at all in the playoffs, could you see the Bulls with the upset?

Naw not really. I wrote this with the knowledge that he wouldn't be playing.

1. As Bob pointed out, there was no Rafer for Jameer swap. Jameer had a season-ending injury, and they somehow landed Rafer as a replacement (which was a great move by management). Rafer is a better passer than Jameer, but Jameer is a better shooter.

Right, that's why it's a swap not a trade . Prolly coulda been a little more clear.

I think it'll be interesting to watch Kobe, and see how LITTLE he has to do in this series

That's how I've felt watching the Lakers all season. Sometimes you forget Kobe is even on the team (Imagine saying that two years ago or even last year). It's amazing watching him play decoy and seeing Pau/Odom/Bynum/Ariza/Fischer go for ridiculous numbers, and then the bench comes in the 2nd quarter and keeps it going (Despite it being a "down year' for them). And Kobe still manages to average 25ish by dominating in the second half.

Nene/Birdman/K-Mart versus... Tyson Chandler?

Yeah, three 4's against a legitimate 5. If he's healthy the trio of Chandler/Paul/West is going to ride roughshot on 'em. I am not at all sold on the Nuggets as a playoff contender.

1. Interesting. Most analysts I've read have said the Lakers will cruise out of the West, while the East is more up in the air.

It was only a year ago that people were saying that the west was the best single conference in the history of the NBA, while the east was lackluster. And really, what's changed? There is still only 1 real contender in the east (Now that KG is out) while the west is still a wolve's den.

[C-Fan]

Oh geez, I totally forgot about West on the Hornets. Yeah, that evens things out a lot more. That's definitely going to be one of the most entertaining series of the first round.

Great series preview of Rockets-Blazers here.

[Rieferman]

Sometimes you forget Kobe is even on the team (Imagine saying that two years ago or even last year). It's amazing watching him play decoy and seeing Pau/Odom/Bynum/Ariza/Fischer go for ridiculous numbers, and then the bench comes in the 2nd quarter and keeps it going (Despite it being a "down year' for them). And Kobe still manages to average 25ish by dominating in the second half.

you know, it's funny because over the years, lots of amazing players have been accused of not making the players around them better. They used to say it about MJ, then they said it about Kobe. There's tons of example.. "So and so is really good, but he doesn't make the players around him better".

I think sometimes, it just takes awhile for the amazing player's presence to rub off on everyone else. Especially if the amazing player isn't a point gaurd. MJ after a few season had everyone's work ethic, role recognition, accountability, effort etc.. he had all of that so fine tuned that suddenly everyone was like "MJ makes everyone around him so much better" (and scottie pippen says "thanks!").

Now we're really seeing that with Kobe and his supporting cast. It really must be defeating to play against them right now... even if you keep it close against all the role players, he'll just come in and kill you in the 4th quarter

[C-Fan]

Player to watch: I'm excited to see Rose's first playoff appearance. .

Holy exceeded expectations Batman!

Rondo vs. Rose in game 1 was a treat to watch. I knew Rose was good, but daaaaamn. Even beyond his statline, he just was super calm and collected throughout. And now the game is going to OVERTIME! Ugh! I love it.

[quadgun]

So i heard the bulls win. was it an exciting match?

[C-Fan]

It was like a one possession game for the last 6 minutes of regulation, and then throughout overtime. It was an amazingly good match.

[Rieferman]

damn it, i only saw highlights... and rose was all that and a bag of chips

trying really hard to watch the dallas san antonio game right now.. but i just think dallas is so lame in so many ways, that it's really hard. plus, on the other side, bruce bowen is such an impostor it's ridiculous. this is basketball, not hockey bowen

[slapdash21]

i was AT the celtics game, fairly trashed.

i was shocked when they lost....i cant believe pierce couldnt make that free throw to win the game

[bdams19]

Here is my take...

Boston over Chicago
Chicago just can't match the defensive prowess of Boston. Rose is unbelievable and played out of his mind in game 1, but Ray Allen and Paul Pierce played terrible and they barely won. Tyrus Thomas is also the streakiest jump shooter and needs to stop shooting when he's one step inside of the three point line. I'll take Boston in 6.

Lakers over Jazz (sweep)
Enough said...

Cleveland over Detroit (sweep)
Detroit is bad... really bad. They gave away Billups for nothing the most boneheaded trade in a long time (say what you will about AI, I've been a big fan but his role on that team should be 6th man where he can be the number 1 option for the 2nd unit). I see great things out of Stuckey in the future but right now that team needs a lot of help.

Houston over Portland (6 games)
Oden/Pryzbilla/Aldridge are not an answer for Yao, period. Battier and Artest are also defensive monsters, and if Roy can't get going, the Blazers are in big trouble. Portland needs to try to get Yao in foul trouble otherwise they are not going to win.

Denver over New Orleans (6 games)
I've been a big fan of Denver all season, but that is mainly because I follow fantasy way too closely. I love the way their squad is put together this season; Billups is THE playoff pg of this decade, Nene is one of the most improved players this year, Kmart is still a defensive presence along with the Birdman, who will block just about anything if you don't fake first, and JR Smith can catch fire with the best of them. The only problem that this team faces is Carmelo Anthony's inconsistency. A year ago he was the focal point of this team and now he looks like he doesn't fit in because he always creates for himself rather than play team basketball. He needs to step it up if Denver has any shot after this round. New Orleans just isn't deep enough and CP3 can't do it himself. Chandler is too little, too late.

Orlando vs. Philly (7 games)
I like Orlando here but it is very close. This is one of the most exciting match ups for me due to all the young guys who can jump out of the gym. I would not be surprised to see an upset, but I cannot believe that Van Gundy designed that awful play to get the ball to turkoglu for a 36 footer. Terrible.

Atlanta vs. Miami (6 games)
Atlanta over Miami. This basically depends on if Josh Smith shows up and if the rest of Miami shows up. Dwade is a beast but he can't do it himself on a team that lacks a shot blocking center. I like Joe Johnson's game a lot and they don't really have anyone who matches up.

Dallas vs. San Antonio (7 games)
I'm taking Dallas. Losing Manu is a huge blow to the Spurs. Roger Mason cannot finish at the hoop like Manu can and that is going to be missed. Kidd holds the record this season for most triple doubles allowed and Tony Parker is easily one of the most unguardable point guards in the league. This looks like it could go either way if Timmy is good to go. I hate the spurs so I'm going to take Dallas and hope for the best.

[Rieferman]

after watching some games, and some espn highlights, here's my new take:

boston over chicago.. just read what bdams wrote to understand my opinion.

lakers over jazz

cleveland over detroit

previously I had Portland over Houston... but that was mostly a lingering bad taste in my mouth because I watched some Houston games earlier this year when mcgrady was still playing and they looked awful. This is an Artest team now, which fits Yao better too. And I think C-fan wrote that battier never is out of place... he's definitely a good glue player. In other words, Houston showed me something and I'm closer to even or calling it in Houston's favor now.

Denver/N'orleans.. I didn't get to study this one yet. But bdams' argument is pretty compelling...

I'm sticking with Philly over Orlando, but I gotta say it's going to be close. re: Orlando, I didn't realize how well they built the shooters around Howard, and I didn't realize how hard they play on defense. Then again, they let Philly back in it and I think that'll kill them mentally.

Atlanta is looking good. Did you see that dunk by smith? holy shit

somplace I talked trash on dallas.. I still hate that team, but the spurs without manu were looking pretty rough. This will be closer than I thought but I'm still taking spurs on pure pride and toughness. Plus, tony parker is practically unstoppable.

[C-Fan]

Enjoying the playoffs so far. Pistons vs. LBJ has been even more boring than I thought. The Pistons just don't look like they care at all. It looks like they're mentally defeated already, which makes me think they're looking at the wrong side of LeBroom in this series.

I still think the Hawks will beat the Heat, but I'd love to see one game this series where Wade just goes off and is unstoppable. That'd be fun.

Seeing Deke go down with the knee injury and leave on a stretcher was tough. I've always loved Mutombo, so I'm sad to see him retire. Still, he had a hell of a run.

I think the Celtics are in trouble. The Bulls nearly beat them in Game 2, despite Rose not playing well and Rondo balling out of his mind. Now that both Garnett and Powe are out for the playoffs, I don't see the Celts winning games on the road in Chicago. Like I've said before though, I hope the series goes 7 games, because it's been super-fun to watch.

[bdams19]

chauncey billups is wetttttttttttt

[Rieferman]

courtney lee from orlando is reminding me of chauncy a little bit... fearless, takes big shots so far.. and he actually just looks like him a little. maybe it's just me

[C-Fan]

Some pretty great games went down this weekend. I missed the Double OT Celtics-Bulls thriller because I was playing footbag though.

Orlando-Philly series has been amazingly close. 3 of the 4 games have been decided by game-winning shots! That's crazy!

Bulls-Celts has also been a real down-to-the-wire series. Oh, and Rondo is averaging a triple double in the series, and is the first person since JKidd in 2002 to have 2 triple doubles in a playoff series. Insane.

Props to the Rockets for winning Game 4. It looks like Yao may finally make it out the first round.

And my condolences to the Pistons, who got blown out this series. This summer is going to be big-time makeover. As a Sheed fan, I'm sad to see him go, and am also curious to see where he ends up.

[BainbridgeShred]

I've been super busy so so far I've only gotten to see a few games at the bar. Seems like it has been a really exciting first round.

The biggest surprise to me was watching the Bulls replay late last night. I had seen a lot of Bulls games last year and quite a few this year too, and it's amazing how much better Rose makes everyone. Tyrus Thomas was nothing more than a freak athlete until now; Heinrich was the definition of average; Joakim Noah was proving all his haters right. Now watching these guys move the ball around it's like they're the fucking Spurs. Rose actually reminds me of Tony Parker except stronger. But really, hats off the to Bulls. I didn't think they had a chance even against a weakened Boston but with Rose playing like this he's a threat. It's amazing how 1 starting PG can make a much better team look so silly.

While on the subject; real ballers have known since late last year; Rajon Rondo is the truth. He's still a ugly little bitch but he balls hard.

Biggest disapointment to me has been the Trail Blazer's. Not that Houston isn't a good team, but I really wanted to see a PO v LA matchup. Would've been a classic for sure. I'm kind of glad it's looking like that wont happen though so now my Lakers can blow by the Rockets who aren't suited to play LA.

[C-Fan]

Cleavland
V
Detroit

1. I agree that Cleveland will win the series.
2. I'm actually expecting a sweep, but yeah, I don't see this series going past 5 games in any scenario.

LA
v
Utah
2. Lakers in 5.
.

Two for two so far, even if they were the easiest calls.

Oh, and when I saw the score for Game 4 of the Denver-NO game, I thought it was a typo. Denver won by 58 points?!? On the road no less... I didn't think it was possible to lose by that much in a playoff game. Yikes.

[quadgun]

I saw the ending of the Lakers v. Utah game last night ... and the Lakers almost lost it at the end. losing a 20 point lead is kinda scary that late in the game. Good thing they held on.